时期生育水平指标的回顾与分析

发布时间：2019-03-04 10:51

【摘要】：本文应用TFR′指标与TFR指标比较 ,在中国历年生育数据和计划生育文献回顾的基础上对以往的生育史和计划生育史联系起来进行分析。结果反映出 :70年代的计划生育使时期TFR持续大幅度下降 ,但逐步积累了很大的由生育推迟所形成的生育势能。 80年代初TFR上升的主要原因是 70年代积累的生育势能的释放 ,而由新婚姻法公布所产生部分早婚早育只是次要原因。80年代尽管存在多次生育政策变化 ,计划生育并没有出现大的失控。其间的TFR波动与政策多变和工作状况不稳定有关。 90年代开始新一轮TFR持续下降 ,但同时也在积累新的生育势能。这一分析量化地揭示了常规TFR的一些缺陷 ,TFR′指标则能够较好地提供生育变化趋势的信息 ,而两者的比较则有助于更好地理解当前的生育状况
[Abstract]:Based on the comparison of TFR' index and TFR index, this paper analyzes the relationship between birth history and family planning history on the basis of reviewing the data of fertility and family planning literature in China over the past years. The results showed that family planning in the 1970s reduced the TFR continuously, but gradually accumulated a lot of fertility potential energy formed by the postponement of birth. The main reason for the increase of TFR in the early 1980s was the release of the fertility potential energy accumulated in the 1970s, while the partial early marriage and early childbearing resulting from the publication of the new marriage law was only a secondary cause. Although there were many changes in fertility policy in the 1980s, There was no big runaway in family planning. The fluctuation of TFR is related to the change of policy and the instability of work. In the 1990s, a new round of TFR continued to decline, but at the same time it was accumulating new fertility potential energy. This analysis quantificationally reveals some defects of conventional TFR, and the TFR' index can provide better information on the trend of fertility change, and the comparison between the two is helpful to better understand the current fertility situation.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学人口研究所!北京100872
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究项目教育部人文社会科学跨世纪优秀人才培养计划基金
【分类号】：C923

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