物流业与制造业的协调演化及发展趋势

发布时间：2017-12-31 02:41

本文关键词：物流业与制造业的协调演化及发展趋势　出处：《工业工程与管理》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于耦合理论和协同理论构建了物流业与制造业耦合协调模型,从产业投入水平、产出效率、发展规模及成长能力出发建立了两业协调发展指标体系,对我国2003-2013年两业耦合协调的时序演化进行了实证研究。结果表明,样本期间内我国两业耦合协调度在波动中不断上升,总体呈现从失调向逐步协调发展的时序演化特征。其中物流业和制造业有序度交替上升,共同推动两业协调发展,但物流业有序度高于制造业,对两业协调发展的贡献更大。最后建立GRNN神经网络模型对两业耦合协调的发展趋势进行了预测,发现未来两业耦合协调度呈现进一步上升的发展趋势,但协调水平不高,仍有较大上升空间。应从物流业、制造业政府及外部环境入手,促进两业协调水平不断提高。
[Abstract]:Based on coupling theory and coordination theory, the coupling coordination model between logistics industry and manufacturing industry is constructed, and the index system of coordinated development between the two industries is established based on the level of industry input, output efficiency, development scale and growth ability. This paper makes an empirical study on the time series evolution of the coupling coordination between the two industries in China from 2003 to 2013. The results show that the degree of coupling coordination between the two industries in the sample period is rising in the fluctuation. The overall evolution features from maladjustment to gradual coordinated development, in which the logistics industry and the manufacturing industry alternately rise in order to promote the coordinated development of the two industries, but the logistics industry order degree is higher than the manufacturing industry. Finally, the GRNN neural network model is established to predict the development trend of the coupling coordination between the two industries, and it is found that the degree of coupling coordination between the two industries will further increase in the future. But the level of coordination is not high and there is still much room for improvement. We should start with logistics industry, manufacturing industry government and external environment to promote the improvement of coordination level between the two industries.
【作者单位】：重庆第二师范学院经济与工商管理系;
【基金】：重庆市社会科学规划项目(2014YBJJ036) 重庆市教委人文社科研究项目(15SKG196) 重庆第二师范学院科研项目(KY201505A)
【分类号】：F259.2;F424
【正文快照】： external environment aspects.1引言上世纪七十年代以来,物流等生产性服务业在全球范围内迅速增长,生产性服务业与制造业的关系问题受到广泛关注,两业关系及其协调发展问题成为国外研究的焦点,形成了供给主导论、需求遵从论、融合渗透论及互动发展论等不同的观点。如Juleff-T

【参考文献】