石油定价权视角下的人民币支付功能提升研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 17:49

本文关键词： 石油美元人民币支付功能石油计价体系博弈模型　出处：《武汉理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：石油作为世界上最重要的大宗资源性产品,具有重要的战略军事地位。在能源争夺战打得越来越激烈的今天,石油的计价货币之争也开始悄然升温。由于美元在国际货币体系中的领导地位,国际贸易中的石油交易大多以美元定价结算,于是在世界范围内形成了一个庞大的石油美元计价体系。石油美元概念的出现不仅仅指出了石油以美元计价这一现实,更暗含了美国对石油价格形成的影响力。美元作为石油的计价货币为美国赚取了巨额财富的同时也给其他国家带来了损失。于是在石油计价货币的领域,削弱美元统治地位的国际呼声也越来越强烈。中国作为一个新兴经济体,对石油的需求量不断攀升。1993年以来,中国就成为了石油的净进口国,对外依存度不断提升,如果能够通过推行石油人民币计价来提升人民币的支付功能,不仅仅对于人民币的国际化有着重要的推进作用,也对于中国未来的经济发展十分有利。本文从介绍国际石油市场的概况出发,从供求,现货期货市场,美元计价和石油美元遭到的挑战四个方面介绍了国际石油市场的现状。然后介绍了我国石油市场发展的现状和趋势。从石油供求,技术与政策法规几个方面分析了我国缺乏石油定价权的现实原因。这两个部分共同揭示了我国推行人民币石油计价的机遇和挑战。然后就是本文的重点,通过讨价还价博弈模型探讨了人民币在石油计价体系中的弱势地位是如何影响我国在石油定价上的话语权的,然后通过另外两个博弈模型,即子博弈完美模型和完美贝叶斯模型分析了人民币进入石油美元计价体系的可能性。接着,本文描述了石油美元,石油欧元和石油卢布的发展历程及特点,并同人民币石油定价进行比较分析。最后,针对我国的实际情况,从发展金融市场,制定有关能源安全的政策法规和推进与其他国家的战略合作三个方面就如何使人民币在与美元的石油计价货币博弈中获利,由此加强石油定价话语权的同时提升人民币的国际支付功能,开拓人民币国际化新路径提出政策和建议。
[Abstract]:Oil, as the most important resource product in the world, has an important strategic military status. Due to the leading position of the dollar in the international monetary system, most oil transactions in international trade are settled in dollars. The concept of petrodollars not only points out the fact that oil is valued in US dollars. The United States' influence on oil prices is implicit. The dollar, as the currency of oil, has made the United States a great deal of money, but it has also brought losses to other countries, so it is in the field of petroleum-denominated currencies. There has also been a growing international clamour to weaken the dominance of the dollar. As an emerging economy, China's demand for oil has been rising. Since 1993, China has become a net importer of oil. The degree of dependence on foreign countries continues to improve. If we can promote the payment function of RMB through the implementation of petro-RMB valuation, it will not only play an important role in promoting the internationalization of RMB. It is also beneficial to China's economic development in the future. This paper introduces the general situation of the international oil market, from the supply and demand, spot futures market. This paper introduces the current situation of the international oil market from four aspects: the valuation of US dollars and the challenge to petrodollars, and then introduces the present situation and trend of the development of the oil market in China, from the point of view of oil supply and demand. This paper analyzes the practical reasons for the lack of oil pricing power in China from the aspects of technology and policies and regulations. These two parts jointly reveal the opportunities and challenges for the implementation of RMB oil pricing in China. This paper discusses how the weak position of RMB in the petroleum pricing system affects the right to speak in oil pricing through the bargaining game model, and then through the other two game models. The subgame perfect model and perfect Bayesian model analyze the possibility of RMB entering petrodollars pricing system. Then, this paper describes the development and characteristics of petrodollars, petroleum euros and oil roubles. And compared with the RMB oil pricing. Finally, according to the actual situation of China, from the development of financial markets. To formulate policies and regulations on energy security and to promote strategic cooperation with other countries on how to make the RMB profit in the petroleum-denominated currency game with the US dollar. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the international payment function of RMB while strengthening the right of oil pricing, and to open up a new path of RMB internationalization.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.6;F426.22

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