全要素生产率、人民币汇率与中国贸易收支——基于跨期最优选择理论的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-12 12:02

本文选题：贸易收支 + 跨期最优分析法　；参考：《财经研究》2011年11期

【摘要】：文章首先以跨期最优分析框架为基础建立以中国贸易收支为研究对象的理论模型,然后基于中国1999-2009年省际面板数据,运用面板FMOLS估计方法,从全国和地区两个层面对中国全要素生产率、人民币实际汇率与中国贸易收支的关系展开实证分析。研究表明,中国贸易部门内资企业和外资企业的全要素生产率提升均对中国实际贸易余额增长产生了正面影响,其中东部地区的促进作用最为强劲;中国非贸易部门全要素生产率与其实际贸易余额负相关,其中东部和中部地区非贸易部门全要素生产率提升会显著减少该地区的实际贸易差额;人民币实际有效汇率提升对中国实际贸易收支具有显著的负面影响,并按照东部、中部和西部地区依次加重。根据上述分析结果,文章提出了调节中国贸易收支的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, based on the intertemporal optimal analysis framework, a theoretical model of China's trade balance is established, and then based on the inter-provincial panel data of China from 1999 to 2009, the panel FMOLS estimation method is used.This paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between China's total factor productivity, the real exchange rate of RMB and China's trade balance at the national and regional levels.The research shows that the increase of total factor productivity (TFP) of both domestic and foreign enterprises in China's trade sector has a positive effect on the growth of China's actual trade balance, especially in the eastern part of the country.The total factor productivity of China's non-trade sector is negatively correlated with its actual trade balance, in which the increase of non-trade sector total factor productivity in the eastern and central regions will significantly reduce the real trade balance of the region;The appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a significant negative impact on China's actual trade balance, which is aggravated by the eastern, central and western regions.According to the above analysis results, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to adjust China's trade balance.
【作者单位】：深圳大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科基金资助项目(09YJC790001) 深圳大学人文社科项目资助(11QNCG17)
【分类号】：F224;F832.6;F752

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