核心通货膨胀:理论模型与经验分析

发布时间：2018-05-01 17:40

本文选题：核心通货膨胀 + 新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线　；参考：《经济研究》2011年02期

【摘要】：现有的核心通货膨胀计算方法假设各种商品和服务的价格变化可以表示为核心通货膨胀与异质性相对价格变化之和,然而这种价格变化的分解方式既缺乏理论基础又违背经济直觉。本文将经典的新凯恩斯模型推广到多部门情形,证明了多部门新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线,提出了各部门商品价格变化的理论分解公式。以这个分解公式为理论基础,本文提出了估计核心通货膨胀的计量经济模型及其两阶段估计方法,给出了根据稳态权重估计核心通货膨胀的简便方法,估计出了我国的核心通货膨胀。有效性检验表明,根据两阶段估计方法和基于稳态权重的估计方法得到的核心通货膨胀都是有效的核心通货膨胀度量。
[Abstract]:Existing core inflation calculations assume that price changes in various goods and services can be expressed as the sum of core inflation and heterogeneity relative price changes. However, the decomposition of this price change lacks theoretical basis and goes against economic intuition. In this paper, the classical new Keynesian model is extended to the multi-sector case, the multi-sector new Keynesian Phillips curve is proved, and the theoretical decomposition formula of commodity price changes in various sectors is proposed. Based on this decomposition formula, this paper presents an econometric model for estimating core inflation and its two-stage estimation method, and presents a simple method for estimating core inflation based on steady-state weight. The core inflation of our country is estimated. The validity test shows that the core inflation derived from the two-stage estimation method and the steady-state weight estimation method is an effective measure of core inflation.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;北京大学光华管理学院;
【基金】：国家杰出青年科学基金(70725006) 国家自然科学基金(70801046;70771083) 中国博士后科学基金(201004-70119)的资助
【分类号】：F820

【参考文献】