基于关键链技术的多项目进度计划与动态管理研究

发布时间：2018-12-15 18:55

【摘要】：当今市场经济条件下的竞争日益激烈，现代项目管理日趋复杂，工程项目进度管理作为项目管理中的重要组成部分有着很重要的现实意义。随着信息技术发展以及市场结构的变化，大多数企业都处于多项目环境中，多项目管理成为一种趋势。针对工程多项目复杂度大和计划执行过程中不确定因素多的特点，传统的单项目关键链管理方法已不再适用，将关键链项目管理引入到多项目动态管理中，对其展开深入研究。首先，在识别单项目关键链的基础上，提出一种基于CARVER矩阵的多项目综合优先级系数的计算方法，，来实现资源约束的多项目调度问题；其次为解决项目管理中诸多不确定性问题，提出关键链缓冲区尺寸设置新方法。该方法从项目属性角度出发，以PERT三点估计中的最乐观时间作为工序持续时间，在综合考虑工序关键性、工序复杂度、位置权重、风险弹性系数四种参数的基础上，采用AHP-熵组合赋权的模糊综合评价法，计算各工序受多重不确定性因素影响的综合浮动影响因子，并将影响因子与安全时间裕量的乘积作为各工序的缓冲量，从而使缓冲区尺寸的设计更加科学，与实际结合也更加紧密；在缓冲区监控中，为体现缓冲区加速消耗的特点，同时考虑工作完成量与缓冲消耗量，并通过在易延误的工序后加设监控点来实现缓冲区消耗的动态监控，使管理决策更加及时、准确。最后通过实例分析表明，本文提出的多项目关键链进度计划与动态管理模型缩短了工期，保证了工程项目按期完工，使工程多项目进度计划具有较高的稳定性、可行性和高效性，为该技术在工程多项目中的应用提供一定参考价值。
[Abstract]:Under the condition of market economy, the competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and the modern project management is becoming more and more complicated. As an important part of project management, project schedule management has very important practical significance. With the development of information technology and the change of market structure, most enterprises are in multi-project environment, multi-project management has become a trend. In view of the complexity of multi-project and the uncertain factors in the process of project execution, the traditional method of single project key chain management is no longer applicable, so the key chain project management is introduced into the multi-project dynamic management, and the key chain project management is deeply studied. Firstly, on the basis of identifying the key chain of single project, a multi-project comprehensive priority coefficient calculation method based on CARVER matrix is proposed to realize the multi-project scheduling problem with resource constraints. Secondly, in order to solve many uncertain problems in project management, a new method of setting the buffer size of key chain is proposed. From the point of view of project attributes, the most optimistic time in PERT three-point estimation is taken as the duration of the process, and four parameters, namely, the key process, the complexity of the process, the weight of position and the elastic coefficient of risk, are considered synthetically. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP- entropy combination weight is used to calculate the comprehensive floating influence factors which are affected by many uncertain factors. The product of the influence factors and the safety time margin is taken as the buffer of each process. Therefore, the design of buffer size is more scientific, and the combination with practice is more close. In the buffer monitoring, in order to reflect the characteristics of the buffer accelerated consumption, the amount of work done and the buffer consumption are considered at the same time, and the dynamic monitoring of the buffer consumption is realized by adding the monitoring points after the easily delayed process. Make management decisions more timely and accurate. Finally, through the analysis of examples, it is shown that the multi-project key chain schedule and dynamic management model proposed in this paper can shorten the construction period, ensure the completion of the project on schedule, and make the multi-project schedule more stable. The feasibility and efficiency provide some reference value for the application of this technology in many projects.
【学位授予单位】：河北工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU722

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