非常规突发事件模糊情景演化分析与管理——一个建议性框架
发布时间：2018-11-27 13:18
【摘要】：以复杂系统科学为指导,在研究非常规突发事件概念和特征的基础上,以模糊情景演化分析方法来解析非常规突发事件的演化过程,即在"系统-规则-状态"逻辑基础上通过对微观层面的有序构建来描述宏观上非常规突发事件演化的无序现象。在此基础上,认为非常规突发事件应急管理过程本质上是识别和调节风险社会系统的过程。通过风险预警、事件情景构建、应急决策、应急管理与评估、应急管理常态化五个管理阶段对非常规突发事件进行应急管理,为非常规突发事件的应急管理提供建议性框架。
[Abstract]:Under the guidance of complex systems science, based on the study of the concept and characteristics of unconventional emergencies, the evolution process of unconventional emergencies is analyzed by fuzzy scenario evolution analysis method. On the basis of "system-rules-state" logic, this paper describes the disorder of the evolution of unconventional emergencies on the macro level through the orderly construction of microcosmic level. On this basis, it is considered that the process of unconventional emergency management is essentially a process of identifying and adjusting the risk society system. Through the five stages of risk early warning, event scenario construction, emergency decision making, emergency management and evaluation, and emergency management normalization, the emergency management of unconventional emergencies is carried out, which provides a suggested framework for the emergency management of unconventional emergencies.
【作者单位】： 中共重庆市委党校公共管理教研部;重庆市第三人民医院党委办公室;
【基金】：重庆市社会科学规划基金项目(2011YBZZ012)
【分类号】：C931
，
本文编号：2360921
[Abstract]:Under the guidance of complex systems science, based on the study of the concept and characteristics of unconventional emergencies, the evolution process of unconventional emergencies is analyzed by fuzzy scenario evolution analysis method. On the basis of "system-rules-state" logic, this paper describes the disorder of the evolution of unconventional emergencies on the macro level through the orderly construction of microcosmic level. On this basis, it is considered that the process of unconventional emergency management is essentially a process of identifying and adjusting the risk society system. Through the five stages of risk early warning, event scenario construction, emergency decision making, emergency management and evaluation, and emergency management normalization, the emergency management of unconventional emergencies is carried out, which provides a suggested framework for the emergency management of unconventional emergencies.
【作者单位】： 中共重庆市委党校公共管理教研部;重庆市第三人民医院党委办公室;
【基金】：重庆市社会科学规划基金项目(2011YBZZ012)
【分类号】：C931
，
本文编号：2360921
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