改进的等维灰数递补模型预测边界确定方法

发布时间：2018-04-09 14:59

本文选题：等维灰数递补模型　切入点：GM(　出处：《测绘科学》2017年10期

【摘要】：针对当前利用灰色预测模型进行地表沉降预测研究更多注重模型本身探讨而较少涉及预测值合理范围以及预测值时间响应函数的还原方法的情况,该文提出了一种改进的等维灰数递补模型预测边界的确定方法,采用了误差传播定律对预测值范围进行界定,并尝试利用中值近似处理代替累减生成建立预测值的时间响应函数;最后,结合工程实例给出了预测值上下边界,探讨了模型在误差允许范围内的预测步长,并对比分析了改进的等维灰数递补模型、原始的等维灰数递补模型和GM(1,1)模型。结果发现:改进的等维灰数递补模型具有较好的拟合效果与预测精度。
[Abstract]:In view of the fact that more attention is paid to the discussion of the model itself and less to the reasonable range of the predicted value and the reduction method of the time-response function of the predicted value, the present research on the ground subsidence prediction by using the grey forecasting model is more focused.In this paper, an improved method for determining the prediction boundary of the equal-dimensional grey number complementary model is presented. The range of the predicted value is defined by the error propagation law.The time response function of prediction value is established by using median approximation instead of accumulation generation. Finally, the upper and lower boundary of prediction value is given with an engineering example, and the prediction step size of the model in the error allowable range is discussed.The improved equal-dimensional grey number complementary model, the original equal-dimensional grey number complementary model and the GM-1 / 1) model are compared and analyzed.The results show that the improved equal-dimensional grey number complementary model has better fitting effect and prediction accuracy.
【作者单位】：河北工程大学资源学院;河北省煤炭资源综合开发与利用协同创新中心;
【基金】：河北省自然科学基金项目(D2015402134) 河北省教育厅科学研究项目(YQ2012012,QN2014184)
【分类号】：N941.5;P642.26

【相似文献】