人民币汇率变动对中国—东盟贸易收支的影响分析

发布时间：2018-02-04 03:17

本文关键词： 人民币加权汇率中国-东盟贸易收支引力模型结构协整　出处：《中南大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着2010年中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立,中国-东盟经济往来日益密切。然而,中国从东盟的进口增长高于对东盟的出口增长,东盟成为中国对外贸易逆差的主要来源地区之一,双边贸易发展不平衡。而汇率是调节一国贸易平衡的重要变量。因此,本文试图从理论和实证两个方面分析人民币汇率变动对中国-东盟双边贸易收支的影响。在对汇率影响贸易收支的相关理论基础进行回顾并对人民币汇率走势及中国-东盟贸易现状进行分析后,本文借鉴IMF计算实际有效汇率指数的方法测算出人民币兑东盟国家货币的实际有效汇率指数,简称人民币加权汇率。以此作为人民币汇率指标并建立引力模型,从汇率水平和汇率波动两个方面分析人民币加权汇率对中国-东盟贸易收支的影响。从整体性分析来看,长期均衡关系和短期动态调整关系均成立。具体来说,协整分析表明中国-东盟贸易收支对人民币加权汇率水平的弹性为-3.45,对人民币加权汇率波动的弹性为0.7；误差修正模型分析表明人民币加权汇率水平和波动对双方贸易收支的短期影响均小于其长期均衡影响；脉冲响应分析发现人民币加权汇率对双边贸易收支影响的J曲线效应不明显。从结构协整分析来看,汇率改革因素改变了人民币加权汇率与中国-东盟贸易收支的协整参数。基于上述分析结果,本文从汇率视角和非汇率视角两个方面对中国-东盟贸易的平衡发展提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area in 2010, China-ASEAN economic ties have become increasingly close. However, China's imports from ASEAN have increased more than its exports to ASEAN. ASEAN has become one of the main sources of China's foreign trade deficit, and bilateral trade development is unbalanced, and the exchange rate is an important variable to adjust a country's trade balance. This paper attempts to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on bilateral trade balance between China and ASEAN from both theoretical and empirical aspects. After reviewing the theoretical basis of the influence of exchange rate on trade balance and analyzing the trend of RMB exchange rate and the current situation of China-ASEAN trade. This paper calculates the real effective exchange rate index of RMB against the currencies of ASEAN countries by using the method of IMF to calculate the real effective exchange rate index. The weighted exchange rate of RMB is referred to as the index of RMB exchange rate and the gravitational model is established. This paper analyzes the impact of RMB weighted exchange rate on China-ASEAN trade balance from two aspects of exchange rate level and exchange rate fluctuation. Co-integration analysis shows that the elasticity of China-ASEAN trade balance to RMB weighted exchange rate is -3.45, and to RMB weighted exchange rate fluctuation is 0.7; The error correction model analysis shows that the short-term influence of RMB weighted exchange rate level and fluctuation on both sides' trade balance is smaller than its long-term equilibrium effect. Impulse response analysis shows that the J curve effect of RMB weighted exchange rate on bilateral trade balance is not obvious. The factors of exchange rate reform change the cointegration parameter between RMB weighted exchange rate and China-ASEAN trade balance. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the balanced development of China-ASEAN trade from the perspective of exchange rate and non-exchange rate.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.7

【参考文献】