资本账户开放对金融安全的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 22:28

本文选题：资本账户开放　切入点：金融安全　出处：《宁波大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：资本账户开放一直以来都是各国谨慎对待和关注的金融问题之一。自九十年代以来，全球爆发了很多次大规模的金融危机，令人们倾向于将金融的不安全与资本账户开放相挂钩。因此，在资本账户开放进程中，对金融安全的维护成为各国经济领域学术界及实务界关注的焦点内容。作为一个经济快速增长的国家，我国经济在全球经济中扮演着举足轻重的角色，其安全与否在一定程度上牵动着世界经济的神经，而经济安全中的核心问题就是金融安全。因为在现代经济体系中，金融占据着核心关键的位置，金融安全直接影响到国家的经济安全。随着金融国际化浪潮席卷全球，为适应经济的发展，我国资本账户的开放已经被提上日程，但在这个过程中，资本账户的开放程度是如何影响我国金融安全水平的，影响程度又到底有多大？这些问题都是亟待解决的，而且研究意义重大。本文首先在前人理论和研究成果的基础上，明确了资本账户开放以及金融安全的定义和内涵。关于资本账户开放对金融安全的影响是利还是弊，国内外学者的看法不一，鉴于研究其不利结果更具现实意义，本文从宏观经济安全、银行安全、证券市场安全、对外安全以及货币安全五个方面详细探讨了资本账户开放给我国金融安全带来的风险效应。但理论在分析资本账户开放对我国金融安全的影响时可能还不够充分，因此，本文采用了实证分析的方法进行了深入的研究。实证过程中，在测度资本账户开放时我们选取的是流量指标。但是对金融安全的测度却没有权威的定论，因此本文构建了金融安全指标体系，在构权过程中选用的方法是层次分析法和熵权法的结合。为研究资本账户开放度和金融安全度之间的数量关系，本文构建了协整模型以及误差修正模型，结果表明长期内我国资本账户开放和金融安全呈现正相关关系，而短期内当期的资本账户开放度对金融安全度影响不显著。接下来，在对两个指标进行格兰杰因果检验时发现，虽然两指标正相关，但是在金融安全水平提高后，我国才选择对资本账户的进一步开放。针对文章的理论和实证，本文在最后一部分先对资本账户开放的进程进行了回顾，然后对如何维护金融安全以应对资本账户的开放提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:The opening of the capital account has always been one of the financial problems that countries have been carefully treating and paying close attention to. Since 90s, there have been many large-scale financial crises around the world. There is a tendency to link financial insecurity to the opening of the capital account. The maintenance of financial security has become the focus of attention of the academic and practical circles in the economic field of various countries. As a country with rapid economic growth, our economy plays a pivotal role in the global economy. To a certain extent, its security affects the nerves of the world economy, and the core issue of economic security is financial security, because in the modern economic system, finance plays a key role. Financial security has a direct impact on national economic security. With the wave of financial internationalization sweeping the world, in order to adapt to the economic development, the opening of China's capital account has been put on the agenda, but in this process, How does the openness of capital account affect the level of financial security in China? These problems are urgent to be solved, and the research is of great significance. On the basis of previous theories and research results, this paper defines the definition and connotation of capital account opening and financial security. Scholars at home and abroad have different views on whether the impact of capital account opening on financial security is good or bad. In view of the more practical significance of studying its adverse results, this paper focuses on macroeconomic security, bank security, and securities market security. The paper discusses the risk effect of capital account opening on China's financial security from five aspects: external security and monetary security. However, the theory may not be sufficient in analyzing the impact of capital account opening on the financial security of our country. Therefore, this paper adopts the method of empirical analysis to conduct in-depth research. When we measure the opening of the capital account, we choose the flow index. However, there is no authoritative conclusion on the measurement of financial security, so this paper constructs the financial security index system. In order to study the quantitative relationship between capital account openness and financial security, a co-integration model and an error correction model are constructed. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the opening of capital account and financial security in the long run, but the opening degree of capital account in the current period has no significant effect on the degree of financial security in the short term. Although the two indicators are positively correlated, China chose to further open its capital account after the improvement of financial security level. In the last part of this paper, the author reviews the process of capital account opening, and then puts forward some policy suggestions on how to maintain the financial security to deal with the capital account opening.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F832

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