扩张政策下的货币因素分析——基于中国长期超额货币供给视角分析

发布时间：2018-05-04 21:48

本文选题：通货膨胀率 + 超额货币供给　；参考：《经济问题探索》2010年02期

【摘要】：本文是笔者看到自2008年10月以来中央采取积极财政政策和适当宽松的货币政策来应对当前严峻的经济形式,对当前形势下采取扩张措施可能对未来物价带来的影响进行思考。在研究过程中,应用传统的费雪货币供应方程对我国改革开放以来的货币供给进行实证分析,得出中国在过去30年来一直存在超额货币供给状况,即在中国,从货币角度考虑一直存在通货膨涨的陷阱。另外,通过对货币超额供给可能带来的问题分析,联系当前国内所采取的以确保未来经济较高速度平稳增长的扩张财政政策和货币政策组合,得出中国国内市场在未来短期内可能产生通货膨胀的结论,同时也说明为消除金融风暴影响、确保经济增长采取扩张性措施时要谨防通货膨胀。在政策制定过程中,应该考虑具体国情,实现以刺激需求为主的政策措施与经济建设目标的平衡。
[Abstract]:The author sees that since October 2008 the central government has taken active fiscal policy and appropriate loose monetary policy to deal with the severe economic situation and to reflect on the possible impact of the expansion measures on the future prices under the current situation. In the course of the research, by using the traditional Fisher's money supply equation, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the money supply since the reform and opening to the outside world in China, and draws a conclusion that there has been an excess money supply in China in the past 30 years, that is, in China. From a monetary point of view, there has always been a trap of inflation. In addition, through the analysis of the problems that may be brought about by the excess supply of money, and in connection with the current domestic expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy mix to ensure a higher and steady economic growth in the future, The conclusion that China's domestic market is likely to generate inflation in the short term also shows that inflation should be avoided when taking expansionary measures to eliminate the impact of the financial turmoil and ensure economic growth. In the process of policy making, we should consider the specific national conditions and achieve the balance between the policy measures and the economic construction objectives.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学;厦门大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F822.0

【参考文献】