我国有色金属行业上市公司价值投资分析

发布时间：2018-05-10 22:05

本文选题：有色金属 + 股价均线　；参考：《电子科技大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：有色金属材料作为重要的工业原材料，是经济建设中必备的战略性资源，被广泛应用于电子、机械、汽车、建筑、包装、冶金、国防和高科技领域，，在国民经济发展中具有相当重要的地位。目前，正是中国经济处于转型和结构调整的时期，有色金属行业的结构调整为投资者提供了新的投资机会；而资源的稀缺性、不可再生性以及全球资源持续的紧缺，也预示着小金属与稀土永磁类价格将在波动中持续上涨。介于有色金属行业充满着投资机会，本文选取有色金属行业上市公司为研究对象，进行基本面和技术面的综合分析，为投资者决策提供理论指导和决策参考。在借鉴前人研究的基础上，本文在对上市公司的投资价值分析中，依次对宏观经济形势、行业发展势态、公司内在价值三个层面进行分析。对宏观经济形式的分析包括了目前国际经济与有色金属的形势、国内有色金属的环境、国家政策导向等方面的内容，其目的在于把握适当的投资机会，通过分析得出在目前国际整体经济复苏动量放缓的情况下，稀缺和受政策保护的有色金属仍具有投资价值。行业发展势态方面介绍了有色金属的分类、国内行业发展的特点的分析。得出小金属与稀土永磁类的发展趋势良好，仍具备投资价值的结论。对公司内在价值投资的分析中，本文选择从公司财务和市场两个方面来进行分析，而前人的研究主要是从财务方面进行评价。具体分析中本文首先选取常用的公司财务评价指标，从公司的长短期偿债能力、公司获利能力、股东获利能力、发展能力，现金流量以及股票价格七个方面共十八项指标建立了投资价值评价体系。然后利用股票市场中常用的移动平均线分析法，在以大盘指数为参考的前提下，选择各公司的120日股价均线值为临界值，对所研究的上市公司进行初步评价，并从62家上市公司中选出达到临界值的31家上市公司。再利用2011年的年报数据与建立的评价指标体系对31家上市公司做进一步的主成分分析，根据主成分分析结果计算出各公司的综合得分排名。最后，用最新的股票市场价格走势比较排名前后三位的公司，经过验证得出本文的研究结果是正确、有效、适用的。
[Abstract]:As an important industrial raw material, nonferrous metal material is a necessary strategic resource in economic construction. It is widely used in the fields of electronics, machinery, automobile, construction, packaging, metallurgy, national defense and high technology. It plays a very important role in the development of national economy. At present, China's economy is in a period of transformation and structural adjustment, and the restructuring of the non-ferrous metal industry has provided investors with new investment opportunities, while the scarcity of resources, non-reproducibility and the persistent shortage of global resources, Also foreshadowing small metals and rare earth permanent magnet prices will continue to rise in volatility. Since nonferrous metal industry is full of investment opportunities, this paper selects listed companies of nonferrous metal industry as the research object, carries on the fundamental and technical comprehensive analysis, provides the theory guidance and the decision-making reference for the investor decision-making. On the basis of previous studies, this paper analyzes the investment value of listed companies from three aspects: macroeconomic situation, industry development situation and internal value of the company. The analysis of macroeconomic forms includes the current situation of the international economy and non-ferrous metals, the domestic environment of non-ferrous metals, the orientation of national policies, and so on, with the aim of seizing appropriate investment opportunities, Through analysis, it is concluded that the rare and policy-protected non-ferrous metals still have investment value under the condition of the slowdown of the international economic recovery momentum. This paper introduces the classification of nonferrous metals and the characteristics of domestic industry development. It is concluded that the development trend of small metals and rare earth permanent magnets is good and still has investment value. In the analysis of the internal value investment of the company, this paper chooses to analyze from the two aspects of company finance and market, while the former research is mainly from the financial aspect to carry on the appraisal. In the specific analysis, this paper first selects the commonly used corporate financial evaluation indicators, from the company's long-term and short-term solvency, corporate profitability, shareholders' profitability, development capacity, Cash flow and stock price seven aspects of a total of 18 indicators set up an investment value evaluation system. Then, using the moving average analysis method commonly used in the stock market, under the premise of taking the large market index as the reference, selecting the 120-day stock price average value of each company as the critical value, the preliminary evaluation of the listed company is carried out. And from the 62 listed companies to select the critical value of 31 listed companies. Then we use the annual report data of 2011 and the evaluation index system to do further principal component analysis on 31 listed companies. According to the results of principal component analysis, we calculate the comprehensive score ranking of each company. Finally, the latest stock market price trend is used to compare the three companies before and after ranking, and it is proved that the research results are correct, effective and applicable.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F426.32;F832.51;F224

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