人民币汇率波动对我国价格指数影响的研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 22:53

本文选题：人民币汇率 + 通货膨胀　；参考：《复旦大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国宏观经济面临着所谓的“双高”现象,一方面从2005年汇率制度改革以来,人民币兑美元汇率一路走高,另一方面,国内经济出现了通货膨胀,特别是2008年和2010年CPI指数的增幅都出现了高值,这一双高的现象意味着人民币在对外升值的同时却在对内贬值。有学者认为,可以将人民币升值视作治理我国通货膨胀的一种方法,其理论依据为,当人民币升值相对外币升值,那么进口商品的价格将相对地下降,这种价格的下降会传递至国内商品的出厂价格和消费价格,乃至总体的国内价格指数,从而产生抑制通货膨胀的力量。这种理论上的传导机制是否成立,如果成立,其效果又怎样呢?研究这一课题有助于更深刻地理解汇率与通胀这两个基本经济概念之间的关系。同时,考虑到对于一个开放经济体而言,汇率是一个举足轻重的经济指标,而物价水平又是直接关系民众生活质量的因素,所以从现实角度出发研究汇率变动对国内价格水平的影响也是非常有意义的。本文运用购买力平价等理论分析了货币升值对国内价格指数的影响机制,在此基础上针对中国的实际情况分析了现阶段通胀的起因及其受汇率波动的影响渠道,考虑到现实中随着人民币升值,通胀的现象并未消除,本文针对理论上升值对通胀的抑制作用,重点分析了这种抑制作用未能充分发挥的原因,并阐述了升值同时可能存在的对通胀的刺激作用。实证方面利用计量分析软件EVIEWS6.0对2005年至2011年的我国月度经济数据进行了分析,得出的结论是人民币汇率对CPI指数的影响并不显著,而且根据格兰杰因果分析也可以看出人民币汇率并不是我国CPI的格兰杰原因。之后,根据实证分析的结果,得出以汇率升值作为治理通货膨胀的手段并不足取,这也是和理论分析部分的结论相契合的,本文最后根据理论和实证的分析结果,提出了一系列对于汇率改革和治理通货膨胀的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's macro-economy is facing the so-called "double high" phenomenon. On the one hand, since the reform of the exchange rate system in 2005, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has gone up all the way; on the other hand, inflation has occurred in the domestic economy. In particular, the 2008 and 2010 CPI index has seen high growth, which means that the yuan has appreciated abroad while devaluing at the same time. Some scholars believe that the appreciation of the RMB can be regarded as a way to control inflation in our country. The theoretical basis is that when the RMB revalues relative to the appreciation of foreign currencies, then the prices of imported commodities will fall relatively. This decline in prices can be transmitted to ex-factory and consumer prices of domestic goods, and even to the overall domestic price index, thus generating inflationary forces. Is this theoretical transmission mechanism tenable and, if so, what is its effect? Studying this topic will help to understand the relationship between the two basic economic concepts of exchange rate and inflation. Considering, at the same time, that the exchange rate is an important economic indicator for an open economy and that price levels are factors directly related to the quality of life of the population, So it is very meaningful to study the effect of exchange rate change on domestic price level from the point of view of reality. This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of currency appreciation on domestic price index by using the theory of purchasing power parity (PPP). On this basis, it analyzes the causes of inflation and its influence channels of exchange rate fluctuation in view of the actual situation in China. In view of the fact that the phenomenon of inflation has not been eliminated with the appreciation of RMB in reality, this paper focuses on the reasons why the inhibition of inflation caused by revaluation in theory has not been fully brought into play. And elaborated appreciation possibly exists simultaneously to the inflation stimulation function. Empirical analysis software EVIEWS6.0 is used to analyze the monthly economic data of China from 2005 to 2011. The conclusion is that the impact of RMB exchange rate on CPI index is not significant. According to Granger causality analysis, we can also see that RMB exchange rate is not the Granger reason of CPI. Then, according to the results of empirical analysis, it is concluded that exchange rate appreciation is not a good way to control inflation, which is consistent with the conclusion of theoretical analysis. Finally, according to the theoretical and empirical analysis results, Put forward a series of policy suggestions for exchange rate reform and inflation control.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F726;F224

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