基于商业银行信贷渠道视角的中国存款准备金政策有效性研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 11:48

本文选题：存款准备金率 + 银行信贷　；参考：《复旦大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：存款准备金制度自1984年建立以来,逐渐成为了央行调节流动性、调控货币供给的重要政策工具。自2006年以来,央行频繁调整存款准备金率,至今已达36次,其政策效果也逐渐成为各界关注的热点。本文以银行信贷总量作为货币政策传导的中介目标,以总产出为最终目标,将存款准备金政策的传导过程划分为内部传导与外部传导两阶段,旨在通过运用协整检验、VEC模型、脉冲响应函数等计量方法,对两阶段存款准备金政策的有效性进行实证分析。在存款准备金政策的内部传导阶段,通过将央行存款准备金政策、公开市场操作工具、再贴现政策对商业银行信贷总量的影响进行横向比较,发现存准率在内部传导过程中相对低效。在此基础上,引入外汇占款变量对模型进行拓展,通过实证分析,我们发现存款准备金政策对信贷供给的影响仍然较弱；而另一方面,我们将银行信贷与外汇占款同时作为一个目标体系时,发现存款准备金率对外汇占款的影响超过对银行信贷总量的影响,说明当前中国货币政策的实施受制于对冲外汇占款的需要。在外部传导阶段,我们分析了银行信贷、货币供应量M1、M2对最终目标——总产出的影响作用,发现银行信贷的影响效应虽然略弱于货币供应量,但仍然对总产出有着显著影响,可以得到外部传导相对有效的结论。本文还从商业银行资产负债表的角度对影响存准率有效性的因素进行分析。通过对2006年至2011年商业银行资金来源与运用情况进行经验性分析,得出商业银行可以通过同业拆借或配置有价证券等方式来削弱存款准备金政策的有效性。最后,本文提出了若干提高存款准备金政策有效性的建议,包括改善准备金资产的构成、扩大准备金缴存适用的负债范围、适当降低法定存款准备金率、建立法定二级准备金、取消准备金付息制度等,并对中国存款准备金政策的未来发展趋势进行了展望。
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of the deposit reserve system in 1984, it has gradually become an important policy tool for the central bank to regulate liquidity and regulate the supply of money. Since 2006, the central bank has adjusted the deposit reserve rate frequently, and has reached 36 times, and its policy effect has gradually become a hot spot of concern. The intermediate target, taking the total output as the ultimate goal, divides the transfer process of the deposit reserve policy into two stages of internal conduction and external conduction. The purpose is to make an empirical analysis of the validity of the two stage deposit reserve policy by means of cointegration test, VEC model, impulse response function and other measurement methods.
In the internal transmission phase of the deposit reserve policy, the effect of the central bank deposit reserve policy, the open market operation tool and the rediscount policy on the total credit of the commercial banks is compared horizontally, and the relative low efficiency is found in the internal transmission process. On this basis, the model is expanded by introducing foreign exchange occupied variables. In the case of empirical analysis, we find that the deposit reserve policy has a weak impact on the supply of credit. On the other hand, when we take bank credit and foreign exchange accounts as a target system, we find that the impact of the deposit reserve ratio on the amount of foreign exchange accounts for more than the total amount of bank credit, indicating the current implementation of China's monetary policy. It is made to hedge against the need for foreign exchange.
In the external conduction phase, we analyze the effect of bank credit, money supply M1 and M2 on the final target - total output, and find that the impact effect of bank credit is slightly weaker than the money supply, but it still has a significant impact on the total output, and can get a relatively effective conclusion from external conduction.
From the perspective of the balance sheet of commercial banks, this paper analyses the factors that affect the validity of the deposit rate. Through the empirical analysis of the source and application of the commercial banks from 2006 to 2011, it is concluded that the commercial banks can weaken the validity of the deposit reserve policy by means of interbank lending or the allocation of securities.
Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the effectiveness of the deposit reserve policy, including improving the composition of the reserve assets, expanding the scope of the applicable liabilities of the reserve, reducing the rate of the statutory deposit reserve, establishing a statutory two level reserve, canceling the reserve rate of reserve, and the future development of the policy of China's deposit reserve. The trend is looking forward.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.4;F832.1;F832.22

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