我国货币政策对房地产市场的传导机制实证研究

发布时间：2018-08-16 09:31

【摘要】：从1998年中国取消福利分房制度以后,房地产市场迅速发展,并日益成为国民经济的支柱产业。随着房地产市场化进程加快,房地产价格持续上涨,不仅超出了居民的基本收入水平,影响到居民的生活质量,也不利于国民经济继续平稳发展,房价问题已经成为社会广泛关注的经济问题。2008年从美国住房市场开始的金融危机,造成了全球范围的内的经济危机和经济衰退。2009年底到2010年,国务院先后出台严格的房地产调控政策——“国十条”、“限购令”,政策的实施到达了一定的效果,全国一线城市房价下降最猛。因此,如何有效的利用宏观经济政策协调经济发展与房地产市场发展之间的关系,成为了各国政府要解决的重要问题,本文所选取的题目具有重要的现实意义。本文通过从理论到实证的研究方法,讨论货币政策对房地产市场、房地产市场对实体经济的影响。理论部分包括：货币政策目标和货币政策工具的理论,货币政策影响房地产市场传导机制,房地产的双重属性,房地产价格的影响因素,房地产价格对实体经济的影响。本文的实证部分包括两个方面：一是货币政策影响房地产价格,建立货币供应量M2、利率对房地产价格影响的变量模型；二是房地产价格对实体经济的影响,分别从消费和投资两方面建立房地产价格、全社会固定资产投资额或社会消费品零售总额、金融机构人民币中长期贷款之间的关系模型,在对数据进行处理的过程中运用ADF单位根检验、VAR(变量自相关模型)检验法、Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验,并建立误差修正模型,最后得出结论。本文包括五个部分。第一章是绪论,主要介绍问题研究的背景和意义,本文研究的主要思路和结构。第二章是建立本文的理论框架,首先介绍货币政策的相关理论,包括货币的工具,货币政策的中介目标,即利率和货币供应量作为本文实证研究的工具。接着介绍房地产市场理论,主要是房地产作为商品和资产的双重属性,影响房地产价格的因素,从而建立本文的模型框架。最后部分一是介绍货币政策影响房地产价格的传导机制,包括利率途径、资产价格途径、股票价格途径和信贷途径,接着就对本章要讨论的货币供应量和利率怎样影响房价进行论述；二是房价对实体经济的影响,在前面传导机制的基础上,本文通过房价对消费和投资的影响两方面进行理论探讨,也为后来实证研究打下基础。第三章是理论联系实际的章节,主要介绍中国货币政策的发展历程,以及在这个过程中房地产的发展状况,可以看到随着央行货币政策职能的增强,对经济的调控能力增强,同时对于房地产价格的影响也在日益加强。最后介绍了中国房地产市场的发展现状,主要从房屋一级、二级和三级市场来观察,可以发现宏观调控对房地产价格影响大,特别是目前严厉的宏观调控政策,对高涨的房价起到了非常大的抑制作用。第四章是本文的实证部分,通过前面几章的理论支撑,本文搜集了2002年1月到2011年12月宏观经济和房地产市场月度数据,通过对数据进行计量处理,包括ADF单位根检验、VAR(变量自相关模型)检验法、Johansen协整检验、建立误差修正模型以及Granger因果检验。实证研究的结果表明,在检验的样本期内,我国货币政策通过调控利率进而影响房地产价格的途径在传导过程中不是很通畅,存在一定的问题。房地产价格对实体经济传导的消费效应比较显著,而房价对实体经济传导的投资效应不显著,总的来说,我国房地产价格影响实体经济的传导机制中也存在一定问题。第五章是结论章节,通过理论和实证研究,发现从2002年到2011年,中国的房地产市场传导机制并不是理论所描述的那样,甚至会出现相反的结论。于是这一章主要讨论货币政策传导机制阻滞及其原因,包括货币政策传导机制本身的问题、市场参与者的问题以及房地产区域化差异的问题,最后对这些问题提出自己的政策建议,包括积极推动利率市场化改革,加快建设保障房和廉租房以及差异化的货币和财政金融政策等。本文的贡献在于：2008年金融危机以后,中国政府为了保证经济平稳增长和防止房地产市场泡沫出现,频繁调整货币政策以及其他相关产业政策。本文采用了最新的数据直到2011年底,检验了中国货币政策的传导机制是否存在传导阻滞,并对传导阻滞的产生原因进行了分析。
[Abstract]:Since China abolished the welfare housing system in 1998, the real estate market has developed rapidly and has increasingly become a pillar industry of the national economy. With the acceleration of the marketization of real estate, the price of real estate continues to rise, which not only exceeds the basic income level of residents, but also affects the quality of life of residents, and is not conducive to the steady development of the national economy. From the end of 2009 to 2010, the State Council successively promulgated a strict real estate control policy - "State Ten Articles", "Purchase Restriction Order". The implementation of the policy has arrived. Therefore, how to effectively use macroeconomic policies to coordinate the relationship between economic development and the development of the real estate market has become an important issue for governments to solve. The topics selected in this paper have important practical significance.
This paper discusses the impact of monetary policy on the real estate market and the real estate market on the real economy by means of theoretical and empirical research. The empirical part of this paper includes two aspects: first, the impact of monetary policy on real estate prices, the establishment of money supply M2, the variable model of interest rate on real estate prices; second, the impact of real estate prices on the real economy, respectively, from consumption and investment to establish real estate prices, the whole society. The relationship model between fixed assets investment or total retail sales of consumer goods and RMB medium and long-term loans of financial institutions is established. ADF unit root test, VAR (variable autocorrelation model) test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and error correction model are used to process the data.
This article includes five parts.
The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background and significance of the research, the main ideas and structure of this study.
The second chapter is to establish the theoretical framework of this paper. Firstly, it introduces the relevant theories of monetary policy, including monetary tools, intermediary targets of monetary policy, namely interest rates and money supply as empirical tools. Then it introduces the theory of real estate market, mainly the dual attributes of real estate as commodities and assets, which affect real estate prices. The last part introduces the transmission mechanism of monetary policy affecting real estate price, including interest rate path, asset price path, stock price path and credit path, and then discusses how the money supply and interest rate affect the house price. On the basis of the previous transmission mechanism, this paper discusses the impact of housing prices on consumption and investment in theory, and lays a foundation for the subsequent empirical study.
The third chapter is the chapter of integrating theory with practice. It mainly introduces the development of China's monetary policy and the development of real estate in this process. It can be seen that with the strengthening of the central bank's monetary policy functions, the ability to regulate the economy has been enhanced, and the impact on real estate prices has been strengthened day by day. The development of the real estate market, mainly from the primary, secondary and tertiary housing market to observe, we can find that macro-control has a great impact on real estate prices, especially the current stringent macro-control policies, on the rising housing prices have played a very large inhibitory role.
The fourth chapter is the empirical part of this paper. Based on the theoretical support of the previous chapters, this paper collects the monthly data of macro-economy and real estate market from January 2002 to December 2011. The empirical results show that the way of monetary policy affecting real estate prices through regulating interest rates is not smooth in the transmission process, and there are some problems. The real estate price has a significant consumption effect on the real economy transmission, while the real estate price has a significant transmission effect on the real economy. The investment effect is not significant. Generally speaking, there are some problems in the transmission mechanism of real estate prices affecting the real economy.
The fifth chapter is the conclusion chapter. Through theoretical and empirical research, it is found that from 2002 to 2011, the transmission mechanism of China's real estate market is not as described in theory, or even will have the opposite conclusion. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on these issues, including actively promoting the market-oriented reform of interest rates, speeding up the construction of affordable housing and low-rent housing, and differentiating monetary and financial policies.
The contribution of this paper is as follows: After the 2008 financial crisis, the Chinese government frequently readjusted monetary policy and other related industrial policies in order to ensure stable economic growth and prevent the emergence of real estate bubbles. The causes of conduction block were also analyzed.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F293.3;F224

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