保险资产管理公司的经济链条和回报预测

发布时间：2018-04-11 14:01

本文选题：保险资产管理 + 回报预测　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：保险资产管理公司可谓买方中的买方,近年来业务突飞猛进,引起市场越来越多的关注。保险资产由保险资产管理人集中管理、投资获得收益。对于保险资产管理人而言,更倾向于获得长期稳定的回报,那么在众多经济链条公司股票中挑选出能够升值保值的组合,就需要投入大量的精力。目前国内对于上下游企业的回报预测关系的研究存在于各行各业,但是在金融领域的分析不是很多,而保险资产管理行业更是寥寥无几。在全球经济一体化背景下,单纯的企业利润结构已不能全面清晰地反映企业在一定时期的经营运作成果,基于经济链条视角的经济分析成为各行各业新的研究工具,本文参考了其他领域的研究结论,将上下游公司可交叉预测回报运用到金融投资里的保险资产管理方面,将数学理论融合到保险资产管理公司投资实践中,从看似无规律的保险资本投资市场运行中找到规律,通过搭建数学模型来拟合这种规律,将数学模型和投资策略相结合来预测保险市场未来的走向,指导资产管理者的投资行为。首先,文章在对已有的顾客分类研究的基础上,重新归类了保险资产管理公司的上游企业,并以企业是否具有信息变动为依据设定上游企业细分准则,因为信息变动带动股价变动。对上游客户类型精挑细选,而不是不加甄别,保证了企业资源的优化配置,使保险资产得到了持续收益。其次,在对保险资产管理公司现状进行分析的基础上,依据面板回归模型和现金流分析,利用样本内数据和样本外数据验证了模型的可行性和准确性,就理论结果与实证分析进行了实证比较研究。从保险资产管理公司的经济链条层面为保险资产管理人提供高投资绩效的方法,积极管理投资,根据预测的市场走向找到恰当的投资机会来获得预期投资收益。再次,应用我国的保险资产管理公司数据进行了实证分析,采用新的顾客细分及经济链条研究能比较贴切的预测保险资产管理公司的回报,得到跨行业的股票回报率在彼此的供应链上是经济相关的结论。基于交叉行业做出的投资策略产生更明显的收益,对指导资产管理经理的投资策略具有重大指导意义。最后,根据实证研究得到我国保险资产管理公司的上下游投资组合回报可以交互预测股票回报,与次月股票回报同向变动的结论,根据这种预测关系建立更加稳妥的投资策略,获得更高的收益回报,进而对模型进行前景展望。预测收益率能为资产管理者提供投资参考价值,但不是投资策略的唯一参考标准,需要考虑更多的因素,也是文章可以深入探讨的方面。最终达到保险资产管理行业更好的完成资产配置、提高投资效益、提高保险主业的竞争力、加大保险在金融市场的占有份额及有效防范利差损风险的目的。
[Abstract]:The insurance asset management company is the buyer among the buyers. In recent years, the business has developed rapidly, which has attracted more and more attention in the market.The insurance assets are managed centrally by the insurance asset manager and the investment gains income.For insurance asset managers, they are more inclined to obtain long-term stable returns, so it is necessary to invest a lot of energy in selecting the portfolio that can appreciate and maintain the value in many stocks of economic chain companies.At present, the research on the relationship between upstream and downstream enterprises' return prediction exists in various industries, but the analysis in the financial field is not many, and the insurance asset management industry is even less.Under the background of global economic integration, the pure profit structure of enterprises can no longer reflect clearly the operating results of enterprises in a certain period of time. The economic analysis based on economic chain has become a new research tool for various industries.Referring to the conclusions of other fields, this paper applies the cross-forecast return of upstream and downstream companies to the management of insurance assets in financial investment, and integrates the mathematical theory into the investment practice of insurance asset management companies.From the seemingly irregular operation of the insurance capital investment market to find out the law, through building mathematical model to fit the law, the combination of mathematical model and investment strategy to predict the future direction of the insurance market,To guide the investment behavior of asset managers.First of all, on the basis of the existing customer classification research, this paper reclassifies the upstream enterprises of insurance asset management companies, and establishes the upstream enterprise segmentation criteria based on whether the enterprises have information changes.Because the information changes drive the stock price change.The upstream customer type is carefully selected instead of discriminating, which ensures the optimal allocation of enterprise resources and makes the insurance assets get sustained income.Secondly, on the basis of analyzing the current situation of insurance asset management company, according to the panel regression model and cash flow analysis, the feasibility and accuracy of the model are verified by using the data inside and outside the sample.A comparative study of theoretical results and empirical analysis is carried out.From the economic chain of the insurance asset management company, it provides the method of high investment performance for the insurance asset manager, actively manages the investment, finds the right investment opportunity according to the forecast market trend to obtain the expected investment return.Thirdly, using the data of China's insurance asset management companies to carry out empirical analysis, using new customer segmentation and economic chain research can more appropriately predict the return of insurance asset management companies.Getting a cross-industry return on stocks is an economic-related conclusion in each other's supply chain.The investment strategy based on the cross industry produces more obvious income, which is of great significance to guide the investment strategy of asset management managers.Finally, according to the empirical study, we get the conclusion that the upstream and downstream portfolio returns of insurance asset management companies in China can interactively predict the stock returns and change in the same direction as the stock returns in the following month, and establish a more stable investment strategy according to this forecasting relationship.To obtain a higher return on income, and then prospects for the model.The forecast rate of return can provide investment reference value for asset managers, but it is not the only reference standard of investment strategy. It needs to consider more factors, and it is also an aspect that can be discussed in depth.Finally, the purpose of the insurance asset management industry is to achieve better asset allocation, improve investment efficiency, improve the competitiveness of the main insurance industry, increase the share of insurance in the financial market and effectively guard against the risk of spread loss.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F842.3

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