基于图模型的冲突局中人偏好认知模型构建
发布时间：2019-07-25 14:39
【摘要】：在冲突博弈过程中,能通过适当的方式获取对手的偏好认知信息对提升自身利益将起着不可估量的作用。本文依据冲突分析图模型理论,建立了冲突局中人的偏好认知模型。该模型通过逻辑分析首先得出某个局中人的理想冲突结局一定是其冲突对手不想看到的结果,即对手一定希望在该结局的偏好值越小越好;其次给出了Nash和SEQ稳定性的最小偏好值的求解方法,并利用反问题求解模型得到了在该值下分别满足相应稳定性的偏好序集;然后构建偏好序分布信息熵对该偏好序集中包含的信息进行挖掘,得到维持理想冲突结局稳定需要特别关注的对手的偏好信息。最后,以"古巴导弹危机"为例,通过偏好认知模型解析,得出美国要想在其理想冲突结局取得Nash和SEQ均衡,需要首先关注的可行状态以及采取的相应策略;同时也验证了该方法的有效性和优越性。偏好认知模型可以从战略层面为冲突中的一方提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:In the process of conflict game, the ability to obtain the preference cognitive information of opponents in an appropriate way will play an inestimable role in promoting their own interests. Based on the theory of conflict analysis graph model, this paper establishes a cognitive model of human preference in conflict. Through logical analysis, the model first obtains that the ideal conflict outcome of a certain game must be a result that its conflict opponent does not want to see, that is, the smaller the preference value of the outcome, the better. Secondly, the solution method of the minimum preference value of Nash and SEQ stability is given, and the preference ordered set satisfying the corresponding stability under this value is obtained by using the inverse problem solving model. Then the information entropy of preference order distribution is constructed to mine the information contained in the preference order set, and the preference information of opponents who need special attention to maintain the stability of ideal conflict outcome is obtained. Finally, taking the "Cuba missile crisis" as an example, through the analysis of preference cognitive model, the feasible state and the corresponding strategy that the United States needs to pay first attention to in order to achieve Nash and SEQ equilibrium in the ideal conflict outcome of the United States are obtained, and the effectiveness and superiority of the method are also verified. Preference cognitive model can provide decision-making basis for one side of conflict from the strategic level.
【作者单位】： 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院;江苏师范大学计算机学院;江苏师范大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71471087,71301064) 国家社科重点基金资助项目(12AZD102) 江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(KYZZ15_0102) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助
【分类号】：C934
本文编号：2519151
[Abstract]:In the process of conflict game, the ability to obtain the preference cognitive information of opponents in an appropriate way will play an inestimable role in promoting their own interests. Based on the theory of conflict analysis graph model, this paper establishes a cognitive model of human preference in conflict. Through logical analysis, the model first obtains that the ideal conflict outcome of a certain game must be a result that its conflict opponent does not want to see, that is, the smaller the preference value of the outcome, the better. Secondly, the solution method of the minimum preference value of Nash and SEQ stability is given, and the preference ordered set satisfying the corresponding stability under this value is obtained by using the inverse problem solving model. Then the information entropy of preference order distribution is constructed to mine the information contained in the preference order set, and the preference information of opponents who need special attention to maintain the stability of ideal conflict outcome is obtained. Finally, taking the "Cuba missile crisis" as an example, through the analysis of preference cognitive model, the feasible state and the corresponding strategy that the United States needs to pay first attention to in order to achieve Nash and SEQ equilibrium in the ideal conflict outcome of the United States are obtained, and the effectiveness and superiority of the method are also verified. Preference cognitive model can provide decision-making basis for one side of conflict from the strategic level.
【作者单位】： 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院;江苏师范大学计算机学院;江苏师范大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71471087,71301064) 国家社科重点基金资助项目(12AZD102) 江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(KYZZ15_0102) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助
【分类号】：C934
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