大规模灾害应急准备容错规划的目标选择

发布时间：2019-08-16 08:07

【摘要】：大规模灾害应对可能会遇到以往少经历或没有经历的意外情景,没有直接的经验可供借鉴。针对上述问题,考虑应急决策者行为的有限理性特征,提出大规模灾害应急准备的容错目标。首先,预设未来可能发生的意外情景,通过大规模灾害造成的人员伤亡、经济损失、社会恐慌和环境破坏四类后果计算其具有区间数形式的损益值;其次,通过应急决策者针对意外情景的损失规避心理特征,根据情景价值、权重及容错成本计算各容错目标的综合价值,根据前景值大小对容错目标进行排序,评估所期望达到的容错等级;最后,以台风暴雨灾害情景为例,验证了所述方法在具体灾害准备的应用,说明了该方法的可行性与有效性。
[Abstract]:Large-scale disaster response may encounter unexpected situations that have little or no experience in the past, and there is no direct experience to draw lessons from. In order to solve the above problems, considering the limited rational characteristics of emergency decision makers' behavior, the fault-tolerant target of large-scale disaster emergency preparedness is put forward. First of all, it presupposes the possible accident scenarios in the future, and calculates the profit and loss in the form of interval number through four kinds of consequences: casualties, economic losses, social panic and environmental damage caused by large-scale disasters. Secondly, through the psychological characteristics of emergency decision makers to avoid the loss of accident scenarios, the comprehensive value of each fault-tolerant target is calculated according to the situational value, weight and fault-tolerant cost, and the fault-tolerant targets are sorted according to the foreground value, and the expected fault-tolerant levels are evaluated. Finally, taking typhoon rainstorm disaster scenario as an example, the application of the method in specific disaster preparation is verified, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are illustrated.
【作者单位】：哈尔滨工业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大计划项目(91024028);国家自然科学基金资助项目(91024031)
【分类号】：C934

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