市场化、财政支农与粮食产出——基于门槛模型的实证分析

发布时间：2018-01-19 03:22

本文关键词： 财政支农粮食产出市场化门槛模型　出处：《中国农业大学学报》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为深入探索财政支农支出对粮食产出的影响规律,利用我国2000—2013年31个省份的面板数据样本,基于门槛模型对市场化背景下财政支农支出对我国粮食产出的影响及其区域差异进行了实证分析。结果表明:1)财政支农支出对粮食产出的影响受市场化水平的严重制约,表现出显著的非线性,存在双门槛效应,2个市场化门槛值分别为4.465及8.540。2)到2013年为止,我国已经有10个省份进入高市场化行列,19个省份为中等市场化省份,但是仍然有西藏、青海2个省份没有迈过低市场化门槛。3)财政支农支出的粮食产出效应存在显著的区域差异。在高市场化省份,财政支农支出对粮食产出的影响系数为0.393,具有显著的促进作用;在中等市场化省份,财政支农支出能够促进粮食产出,其影响系数为0.031,但是促进作用不显著;而在低市场化省份,财政支农支出对粮食产出的影响系数是-0.087,其效应显著为负。认为应该在市场化水平比较低的省份加快其市场化进程,进行制度创新,以更有效地实现财政支农促进粮食安全的政策目标。
[Abstract]:In order to deeply explore the impact of fiscal expenditure on food output, the panel data samples from 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2013 were used. Based on the threshold model, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of fiscal expenditure on grain output and regional differences in China under the background of marketization. The results show that: 1). The influence of fiscal expenditure on grain output is seriously restricted by the market-oriented level. The two market-oriented thresholds are 4.465 and 8.540.2 respectively) until 2013. In China, 10 provinces have entered the ranks of high marketization, 19 provinces are medium market-oriented provinces, but there is still Tibet. There are significant regional differences in grain output effects of fiscal expenditure on agriculture in two provinces of Qinghai, which are not too low market-oriented threshold. 3) in high market-oriented provinces, there are significant regional differences. The influence coefficient of fiscal expenditure on grain output is 0.393, which has a significant promoting effect. In the middle market-oriented provinces, the fiscal expenditure for agriculture can promote the grain output, its influence coefficient is 0.031, but the promoting effect is not significant. But in the low market-oriented provinces, the influence coefficient of the fiscal expenditure on grain output is -0.087, and its effect is significantly negative. It is believed that the marketization process should be accelerated in the provinces with low marketization level. Carry on system innovation in order to realize more effectively the policy goal of fiscal support for agriculture and food security.
【作者单位】：湖南农业大学经济学院;湖南工程学院管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(15BJY094) 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金课题(20134320110007) 湖南省哲学社科基金项目(15YBB025) 湖南省教育科学规划重点课题(XJK014AGD006) 湖南省重点学科建设项目(湖南教发[2011]76号)
【分类号】：F812.8;F326.11
【正文快照】： 2.湖南工程学院管理学院,湖南湘潭411104)财政支农资金的投入是保障与提高我国粮食安全的重要政策手段,主要是通过减免税费及财政资金的转移支付两种途径来达到粮食安全的政策目标。财政支农资金对粮食安全的保障可以从资金的规模和资金的使用效率两个方面衡量:支农资金的规模

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