安徽省财政支出绩效评价及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-02-16 15:31

本文关键词： 安徽省财政支出绩效 DEA-Tobit Malmquist指数　出处：《安徽大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年以来,由于国际金融危机等因素对宏观经济需求的冲击,我国的经济增长速度渐趋缓慢,在政府调结构、拉内需、保增长、促民生等一系列积极财政政策下,地方政府财政支出范围越来越大,规模不断上涨,而分税制下财权和事权的不对等,使得地方政府面临着极大的财政压力,财政赤字不断上升。结构型减税和营改增的推行影响了地方财政收入的增长趋势,普遍争论的房产税和遗产税短期内无法形成地方的支柱税源,地方政府为弥补财政收支缺口筹措资金,只能依靠土地财政、地方融资平台,伴随地方投资热潮的是不断加剧的地方债务风险。长期以来,财政资金的使用确实存在浪费和低效率的情况,饱受各界的批评。随着公众参与公共事务的意识增强,人们越来越关注财政资金的使用结果,要求政府加强财政体制改革提高财政支出的效益。另外,20世纪80年代,西方政府在“新公共管理”运动下进行的公共预算管理改革效果是比较明显的,有效地控制了财政赤字和政府债务的扩张,提高了政府的运行绩效。不断增加的财政支出规模、高赤字、地方债务风险和公众对于提高财政支出效益的呼声等种种因素迫使中央和地方政府将目光投向了财政支出绩效管理。本文从安徽省的财政收支状况出发,以地方公共产品理论、公共选择理论、财政分权和新公共管理理论为指导,简要论述了财政支出绩效涉及到的概念范畴,针对安徽省财政支出的情况,运用经济计量方法实证研究了安徽省的财政支出绩效情况,分析了财政支出绩效变化的趋势,运用定性和定量的方法分析影响财政支出绩效变化的因素.根据相关理论和实证分析的结果,本文提出了进一步提高安徽省财政支出绩效的政策建议。本文主要运用非参数DEA-Tobit模型对安徽省1991到2012年的财政支出绩效进行实证分析,结果表明：(1)安徽省有12年处于DEA相对无效率状态,从财政支出绩效趋势图来看,波动较大且不存在向上收敛趋势。(2)安徽省财政的支出规模偏离最优支出规模,财政支出预算管理和决策水平低下是财政支出绩效不高的原因。(3)对安徽省财政支出绩效变动产生巨大影响的有次贷危机、中央财政政策、公共财政体制改革、税制改革、皖江城市带承接产业转移示范区的建立等。(4)人均GDP的提高会降低财政支出绩效；人口年龄结构与财政支出绩效反方向变化；教育水平、市场化水平和城镇化水平的提高有利于财政支出绩效的提高；GDP增长率也与财政支出绩效呈正向关系。本文根据上述实证研究的结果,立足安徽省的实际情况,从预算绩效改革和政府管理体制改革和市县政府财政支出绩效三个方面出发,针对财政资源配置效率、预算决策效率和制度效率论述了提高安徽省财政支出绩效的建议。
[Abstract]:Since 2008, due to the impact of the international financial crisis and other factors on the macroeconomic demand, China's economic growth has gradually slowed down. Under a series of positive fiscal policies, such as adjusting the structure of the government, pulling domestic demand, ensuring growth, promoting people's livelihood, etc. The scope and scale of local governments' fiscal expenditure are increasing, and the unequal financial and administrative powers under the tax sharing system make the local governments face great financial pressure. Fiscal deficits are rising. The introduction of structural tax cuts and business reforms has affected the growth trend of local fiscal revenues, and the widely debated property and estate taxes will not be able to form the local pillar tax source in the short term. The local government can only rely on land finance and local financing platform to raise funds to make up the gap of fiscal revenue and expenditure. The local investment boom is accompanied by the increasing risk of local debt. For a long time, the use of financial funds has indeed been wasteful and inefficient, and has been criticized from all walks of life. With the increasing awareness of public participation in public affairs, people are paying more and more attention to the results of the use of financial funds. In 80s of the 20th century, the effect of the public budget management reform carried out by western governments under the "New Public Management" movement was quite obvious. Effectively control the fiscal deficit and the expansion of government debt, improve the performance of the government. Various factors, such as the risk of local debt and the appeal of the public to improve the efficiency of fiscal expenditure, force the central and local governments to pay attention to the performance management of fiscal expenditure. Based on the situation of fiscal revenue and expenditure in Anhui Province, and guided by the theories of local public goods, public choice, fiscal decentralization and new public management, this paper briefly discusses the conceptual categories involved in the performance of fiscal expenditure. According to the situation of financial expenditure in Anhui Province, this paper empirically studies the performance of fiscal expenditure in Anhui Province by using econometric method, and analyzes the trend of the change of financial expenditure performance. The qualitative and quantitative methods are used to analyze the factors that affect the performance of financial expenditure. Based on the results of relevant theory and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to further improve the performance of fiscal expenditure in Anhui Province. In this paper, the non-parametric DEA-Tobit model is mainly used to analyze the financial expenditure performance of Anhui Province from 1991 to 2012. The results show that Anhui Province has been in a relatively inefficient state of DEA for 12 years. The fiscal expenditure scale of Anhui Province deviates from the optimal expenditure scale. The low level of budget management and decision making of fiscal expenditure is the reason why the performance of fiscal expenditure is not high.) the sub-prime crisis, the central fiscal policy, the reform of public financial system and the reform of tax system have great influence on the change of financial expenditure performance in Anhui Province. The increase of per capita GDP will reduce the performance of fiscal expenditure, the change of population age structure and performance of fiscal expenditure in the opposite direction, the level of education, The improvement of the level of marketization and urbanization is beneficial to the improvement of the performance of fiscal expenditure. The growth rate of GDP is also positively related to the performance of fiscal expenditure. According to the results of the above empirical research, based on the actual situation of Anhui Province, this paper aims at the allocation efficiency of financial resources from three aspects: budget performance reform, government management system reform and municipal and county government fiscal expenditure performance. Budget decision efficiency and system efficiency are discussed to improve the performance of Anhui fiscal expenditure.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.45

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