我国地方政府的偿债能力与风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 07:19

本文选题：地方政府债务　切入点：主成分分析　出处：《南京大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：由于过去计划经济体制遗留下来的历史原因,我国对地方政府举债一直持十分保守的态度。20世纪90年代财政部颁布《预算法》,对地方政府对外举债做了明令禁止。但改革开放后,工业化和城市化进程的加速使得地方财政积累了大量隐性及或有负债。为规避监管部门的监督管理,地方政府地方债务逐渐呈现了出隐蔽性和多样性的特点,加大了地方财政的管理难度；同时个别地方政府债务过重,财政风险逐渐积聚。本文主要研究地方政府债务偿付能力及风险管理机制。根据2014年审计署公布的地方政府债务审计结果,从经济实力、债务规模、债务结构、筹措资金使用效率、债务实际偿还情况等方面选取了12个指标来度量2012年底至2013年6月23个省份和直辖市的债务清偿能力。用主成分分析法提取了“债务规模增长及其支撑因素”、“地方政府债务构成”、“债务实际偿付情况情况”、“债务资金使用效率”四个主成分,并且通过主成分得分函数模型,得到了研究标的省市主成分因子的得分及其综合偿付能力情况。研究结果表明,目前我国地方政府债务偿付存在不同程度的风险,局部地区债务规模较大,地方债务财政负担较重。当前,我国地方政府债务管理体制建设严重滞后。文本以此为我国地政府债务的持续发行、健康清偿提出了一些政策建议,以提升地方政府综合偿债能力及风险管理能力。
[Abstract]:Because of the historical reasons left over by the planned economic system in the past, In 90s, the Ministry of Finance promulgated the Budget Law, which prohibited the borrowing of local governments from the outside world. However, after the reform and opening up, The acceleration of industrialization and urbanization makes the local finance accumulate a large number of recessive and contingent liabilities. In order to avoid the supervision and management of the regulatory department, the local government debt gradually presents the characteristics of concealment and diversity. This has made it more difficult to manage local finance; at the same time, some local governments are overindebted. Financial risk gradually accumulates. This paper mainly studies the local government debt solvency and risk management mechanism. According to the audit results of local government debt issued by the Audit Office on 2014, from the economic strength, debt size, debt structure, Efficiency in the use of funds, From end of 2012 to June 2013, 12 indexes were selected to measure the debt solvency of 23 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government. The principal component analysis was used to extract the "growth of debt scale and its supporting factors". The composition of the government debt, the actual repayment of the debt, the efficiency of the use of debt funds, And through the principal component score function model, we get the score of the principal component factor and its comprehensive solvency. The results show that the local government debt repayment in China has different degrees of risk. At present, the construction of local government debt management system in our country is seriously lagging behind. The text puts forward some policy suggestions for the sustainable issuance of local government debt and the healthy settlement of the debt. In order to enhance the comprehensive solvency of local governments and risk management capacity.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5

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