经济增长、产业结构调整与税收增长关系探析

发布时间：2018-03-14 08:49

本文选题：经济增长　切入点：产业结构　出处：《郑州大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2015年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：经济增长率的下调和产业结构的调整是否会抑制税收增长,最终引发财政收支高度不平衡?从学理上深入分析经济增长、产业结构调整与税收增长之间的关系,是制定科学合理的税制改革方案和税收政策的依据。税收增长与经济增长具有同向非固定系数性对应关系,原因在于:一是GDP和税收的计算依据不完全一致;二是价格对GDP增长率和税收增长率的影响程度不一样;三是部分税收与当期GDP没有直接联系;四是税收产业结构与GDP结构非对称。而产业结构状况对税收的总量和结构均有决定作用,产业结构调整恰恰是推动税收增长的正能量,没有产业结构调整,就不会有近十年的税收高增长,未来税收也不会稳步增长。第一产业规模稳定是税收增长的基本支撑力;第二产业持续发展是税收增长的稳定器;第三产业地位抬升是税收增长的加速器。协调三者关系要以发展实体经济为突破口稳步扩大税源,通过推进税制改革带动第三产业发展并在产业结构调整过程中逐步提高直接税比重。
[Abstract]:Will the downward adjustment of the economic growth rate and the adjustment of the industrial structure restrain the tax growth and eventually lead to a high imbalance of fiscal revenue and expenditure? An in-depth theoretical analysis of the relationship between economic growth, industrial structure adjustment and tax revenue growth is the basis for formulating scientific and reasonable tax reform schemes and tax policies. The reasons are: first, the calculation basis of GDP and tax is not completely consistent; second, the influence of price on the growth rate of GDP and the rate of tax growth is different; third, part of tax is not directly related to current GDP; Fourthly, the structure of tax industry and the structure of GDP are asymmetric. And the situation of industrial structure has a decisive effect on the total amount and structure of tax revenue. The adjustment of industrial structure is exactly the positive energy to promote tax revenue growth, and there is no adjustment of industrial structure. There will be no high tax growth in the past ten years and no steady increase in tax revenue in the future.First-industry scale stability is the basic support of tax growth, and the sustained development of the secondary industry is the stabilizer of tax growth. The promotion of the status of the tertiary industry is the accelerator of tax growth. To coordinate the relationship among the three, we should steadily expand the tax sources through the development of the real economy. The third industry is promoted by the reform of tax system and the proportion of direct tax is gradually raised in the process of industrial structure adjustment.
【作者单位】：财政部财政科学研究所;
【分类号】：F124.1;F121.3;F812.42

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