欧洲主权债务危机救助机制及其政策效应分析

发布时间：2018-04-13 23:11

本文选题：欧洲主权债务危机 + 欧洲中央银行　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：二战后欧洲开展了一系列的合作与互助,来维护和平及促进发展。伴随着欧盟的成立以及后续欧元的发行,欧元区开始执行统一的货币政策,促使欧洲的区域经济一体化发展到了高峰,使得“欧盟模式”被各个经济区域称赞及学习。然而伴随着欧洲一体化的不断加深,大部分国家也开始债务缠身,赤字严重。美国次贷危机的爆发对欧元区造成极大的外来冲击,之前看似稳固的欧元区各国开始逐渐暴露出诸多问题,主权债务危机开始爆发。单靠传统欧洲中央银行、《马斯特赫斯特条约》以及《稳定与发展条约》已经无法维持欧元区的稳定与经济发展,这就倒逼欧盟对欧洲中央银行的职能进行改革,重新修订《马斯特赫斯特条约》及《稳定与发展条约》中的诸多条款,并且在欧洲中央银行之外,也开始成立诸多欧洲经济稳定机制来监管及维护欧元区经济的稳定。欧洲的经济稳定事关整个世界的和平与发展,因此梳理及研究欧盟的债务危机救助机制便具有重要的理论及现实意义。本文的研究主要包含以下几个方面。(1)对欧洲主权债务危机进行简单的介绍,阐述其形成的过程及原因。随后引出欧元区的危机救助方法,即欧洲中央银行的救助及欧洲经济稳定机构的危机应对机制。(2)对维护欧元区经济稳定的主要机构——欧洲中央银行体系进行详细阐述,并指出其制度及逻辑缺陷,以及其在危急中如何改革以弥补缺陷更好的对危机国进行救助。(3)对主权债务危急中成立的欧洲经济稳定机构进行详细阐述,介绍其成立原因以及怎样更好的辅助欧洲中央银行来维持欧洲经济的恢复、稳定与发展。(4)对上述两大救助体系的效应展开研究。先从理论上阐述二者在履行“最后贷款人角色”时所展开救助措施的一致性,随后运用双重差分模型(Difference in differences)来对相关救助政策对于经济恢复与发展的效用进行计量分析。本文通过上述梳理,得到以下结论。首先,在理论上对欧元区危机救助的有效性进行充分肯定。欧元区对欧洲主权债务危机展开的救助,在一定程度上维护了欧元区经济的稳定,同时也完善了欧元体系的价格稳定及危机救助机制,促使欧元区逐渐走向成熟。其次,本文也通过构建双重差分模型来对欧元区的政策救助进行计量分析,从实证的角度研究救助政策对危机国经济恢复的净影响,最后得到显著有效的结论,进一步肯定了救助政策对危机国的正效用。
[Abstract]:After World War II, Europe carried out a series of cooperation and mutual assistance to maintain peace and promote development.With the establishment of the European Union and the subsequent issuance of the euro, the euro zone began to implement a unified monetary policy, which promoted the regional economic integration of Europe to the peak, making the "EU model" praised and learned by various economic regions.However, with the deepening of European integration, most countries also began to debt, serious deficits.The outbreak of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has caused a huge external shock to the euro zone, as previously seemingly solid euro zone countries began to expose problems and the sovereign debt crisis began to erupt.The traditional European Central Bank, the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Development Pact have failed to maintain the stability and economic development of the euro zone, forcing the European Union to reform the functioning of the European Central Bank.The articles of the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Development Pact have been revised and, in addition to the European Central Bank, a number of European economic stability mechanisms have been established to regulate and maintain the stability of the euro zone's economy.The economic stability of Europe is related to the peace and development of the whole world, so it is of great theoretical and practical significance to sort out and study the debt crisis relief mechanism of the European Union.This paper mainly includes the following aspects: 1) briefly introduce the European sovereign debt crisis and explain the process and reason of its formation.Then it introduces the crisis rescue method of the euro zone, that is, the rescue of the European Central Bank and the crisis response mechanism of the European Economic Stability Agency (EEA), which elaborates in detail the European Central Bank system, the main institution for maintaining the economic stability of the euro area.It also points out its system and logic defects, and how it can be reformed in order to make up for the defects. (3) to elaborate in detail the European Economic Stability Agency established in the crisis of sovereign debt.This paper introduces the reasons for its establishment and how to better assist the European Central Bank to maintain the recovery, stability and development of the European economy.Firstly, the consistency of the rescue measures carried out by the two parties in fulfilling the role of "lender of last resort" is expounded theoretically, and then the econometric analysis of the effectiveness of relevant rescue policies for economic recovery and development is carried out by using the double difference in difference (DDA) model.Through the above-mentioned combing, this paper draws the following conclusions.First, in theory, the effectiveness of the euro zone crisis rescue is fully affirmed.The euro zone's rescue of Europe's sovereign debt crisis has helped to preserve the stability of the euro zone's economy, while improving the price stability and crisis relief mechanism of the euro system, prompting the euro zone to mature.Secondly, this paper also makes econometric analysis on the policy rescue of the euro area by constructing a double difference model, studies the net impact of the rescue policy on the economic recovery of the crisis countries from the perspective of empirical analysis, and finally obtains a significant and effective conclusion.Further affirmed the rescue policy to the crisis country's positive effect.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F815

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