税费政策调整的宏观经济效应——基于消费者异质性的新凯恩斯模型

发布时间：2018-04-15 03:15

本文选题：税收政策 + 社保费率　；参考：《税务研究》2017年06期

【摘要】：本文构建了一个包含消费者异质性的三部门新凯恩斯模型,引入商品税率、劳动所得税率、资本所得税率、社保费率冲击,实证研究了商品税率、劳动所得税率、资本所得税率及社保费率变化对宏观经济波动的贡献率及动态效应。研究发现:1.商品税率冲击对主要宏观经济变量波动的贡献率最大,其程度达到89%以上,而劳动所得税率冲击和社保费率冲击对宏观经济波动的影响较小;2.降低税费有助于刺激经济增长,而劳动所得税率和社保费率下降更有利于经济稳定与增长;3.税费减免政策有利于提高财政的可持续性;4.通货膨胀是一种"财政—货币"现象,且通货膨胀主要是成本推动型。为此,本文提出以下建议:我国政府应该加大减税力度,以降低劳动所得税率和社保费率为主,来稳定宏观经济增长,并辅以基准利率的提高来抵抗通货膨胀的压力。
[Abstract]:This paper constructs a new Keynesian model including consumer heterogeneity, introducing commodity tax rate, labor income tax rate, capital income tax rate, social security rate impact, empirically studies commodity tax rate, labor income tax rate, labor income tax rate.The contribution rate and dynamic effect of capital income tax rate and social security rate change to macroeconomic fluctuation.The study found that 1: 1.The impact of commodity tax rate on the fluctuation of main macroeconomic variables is the largest, with a degree of more than 89%, while the impact of labor income tax rate and social security rate impact on macroeconomic fluctuation is small. 2.Lower taxes and fees will help stimulate economic growth, while lower labor tax rates and lower social security rates will contribute to economic stability and growth.Tax and fee reduction policy is conducive to improving fiscal sustainability.Inflation is a financial-monetary phenomenon, and inflation is mainly cost-driven.Therefore, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: our government should increase tax reduction to reduce labor income tax rate and social security rate, to stabilize macroeconomic growth, and to counteract the pressure of inflation with the increase of benchmark interest rate.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：教育部重大攻关项目“中国公共财政风险评估及其防范对策研究”(项目编号:10JZD0023) 国家社会科学基金重大项目“城乡环境基本公共服务非均等程度评估及均等化路径研究”(项目编号:11&ZD041)和国家社会科学基金重大项目“建构基于生态文明建设的公共财政体制研究”(项目编号:15ZDB158)的资助
【分类号】：F812.42

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