石油价格波动影响经济增长的税收渠道研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 08:13

本文选题：税收渠道 + 石油价格　；参考：《江西财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：石油作为一种重要的稀缺资源,其生产与供应直接关系到一国经济乃至世界经济的正常运行和人民生活水平,同时,作为一种重要的战略物资,石油在国际政治与国防安全领域发挥着不可替代的作用,因此石油价格就成为了反映国家经济状况和人民生活水平的指针。石油价格的任何变动都会被各国政府和人民所关注。居于此,本文选取布伦特石油价格(Brent)代表国际石油价格,结合我国的国情现状,深入探寻石油价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响,而探讨税收渠道下石油价格波动对国民经济的影响则具有重要的现实意义。首先,依据国内外石油价格与我国宏观经济数据,本文从宏观层面分析了我国石油价格和国际石油价格的走势以及我国宏观经济的走势。对2001年至今造成石油价格波动的典型化事实进行综述,发现影响石油价格波动的因素主要是有供需层面的因素、货币与财政层面的因素和政治层面的因素。研究影响石油价格波动的因素对于我国石油发展战略的制定有一定的指导意义。其次,通过运用宏观经济学中总供给-总需求模型即AD-AS模型,对税收渠道下石油价格波动对国民经济的影响进行理论分析,得出对石油征税这一宏观举措对国民经济的影响。由于税收乘数为负数,税收与国民经济呈反方向变动因此在课税条件下,对石油价格进行调整会使得整个宏观经济状况发生变动。再次,对于石油价格波动对经济增长的税收渠道分析进行实证研究。实证分析主要从以下几个方面展开：第一,对原始数据进行处理,对其进行序列平稳性检验；第二,构建联立方程组,对联立方程进行三阶段最小二乘拟合回归处理,并根据联立方程的拟合结果对联立方程组进行ARCH效应检验；第三,利用GARCH(1,1)模型对联立方程进行重新估计,并对GARCH模型的ARCH效应进行检验；第四,进行税收渠道性的实证分析,以2001年1月至2010年12月的数据为样本建立估计模型,采取动态预测法对国内石油价格、国民生产总值进行预测,预测2011年1月至2013年9月的月度国内石油价格和月度国内生产总值。将2011年1月至2013年9月的月度国内石油价格和月度国内生产总值的预测数据与该时间区间中实际的月度石油税率进行最小二乘估计,依据其估计结果可断定石油价格对GDP的影响主要是通过税率传导过来的,而税率的变动直接对产出进行影响。最后,依据实证分析,得出结论,再一次证明石油价格对国内生产总值的冲击影响主要是通过石油税率传导而来的,而税率的变动也对国内生产总值有直接的影响,这与理论分析的结论相一致。因此,本文根据理论和实证分析结果,从石油行业税收政策、石油市场价格机制、石油储备体系建设和石油行业可持续发展四个方面提出政策建议,主要包括：建立完善的石油行业税收政策；建立完善的石油市场价格机制；加强石油储备体系建设和促进石油行业可持续发展。
[Abstract]:As an important scarce resource , the production and supply of petroleum are directly related to the normal operation of a country ' s economy and even the world economy and the people ' s standard of living . At the same time , as an important strategic material , oil plays an irreplaceable role in the fields of international politics and national defense security , so the oil price has become a pointer to the country ' s economic situation and the people ' s living standard .

First , according to the domestic and foreign oil prices and our country ' s macro - economic data , this paper analyzes the trend of China ' s oil price and international petroleum price and the trend of China ' s macro - economy from the macro - level .

Secondly , the influence of oil price fluctuation on national economy is analyzed theoretically by using the model of total supply - total demand ( AD - AS ) in the macro - economics , and the influence of the macro - action on the national economy is drawn . As the tax multiplier is negative , the tax and the national economy change in the opposite direction , so the adjustment of the oil price can make the whole macroeconomic situation change under the condition of taxation .

Thirdly , empirical research is carried out on the tax channel analysis of the fluctuation of oil price on the economic growth . The empirical analysis is mainly carried out from the following aspects : First , the raw data is processed , and the sequence stability test is carried out ;
Secondly , constructing the group of simultaneous equations , performing three - stage least - squares fitting regression processing on the simultaneous equations , and carrying out ARCH effect test on the set of simultaneous equations according to the fitting result of the simultaneous equations ;
Thirdly , we re - estimate the simultaneous equations by using the ARCH ( 1,1 ) model , and verify the ARCH effect of the ARCH model .
Fourthly , carry out an empirical analysis of the tax channel , establish an estimation model for the sample from January 2001 to December 2010 , forecast the domestic oil price and gross national product by dynamic forecasting method , and forecast the monthly domestic oil price and the monthly gross domestic product in the period from January 2011 to September 2013 . According to the estimation result , the influence of the oil price on GDP is mainly conducted through the tax rate , and the change of the tax rate directly affects the output .

Finally , according to the empirical analysis , it is concluded that the impact of oil price on gross domestic product ( GDP ) is mainly influenced by the oil tax rate , and the change of tax rate has a direct impact on GDP , which is consistent with the conclusion of theoretical analysis . Therefore , according to the theoretical and empirical analysis results , this paper puts forward policy suggestions from four aspects of oil industry tax policy , petroleum market price mechanism , petroleum reserve system construction and petroleum industry sustainable development .
Establish a perfect price mechanism of petroleum market ;
Strengthening the construction of the oil reserve system and promoting the sustainable development of the petroleum industry .

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F812.42;F426.22

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