税收收入预测在云南省中期财政规划中的应用
本文选题:中期财政规划 + 税收收入预测 ; 参考:《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文
【摘要】:云南省是全国第一个将中期财政规划思想贯穿到十三五规划中的省份,中期财政规划的核心在于对收入和支出进行预测,匹配财力,约束支出,将中期预算与政府政策相结合。因此,研究合理的税收预测方法有助于精准科学安排财力支出。2015年国务院发布了《关于实行中期财政规划管理的意见》,提出实行中期财政规划管理。对于这个概念,在国外有很多其他方式的表述,诸如滚动预算、多年预算、中期预算、中期支出框架、中期财政计划等等,而对于中国来说,中期财政规划是我国特色用语。虽然不同的文献对其表述不同,但这些表述的内涵本质是一致的,做法也基本相同,即将一个详细制定的中期预算估计与政府财政政策相连接的约束性程序。这种财政规划的周期通常为2-5年,因此,在制定这类规划的时候,必须对将来在经济活动中可能发生的,对整个经济社会可能产生一定影响的各种因素加以考虑,并且对数年内的财税收入的变化趋势进行合理的判断。这样一来,不论是在当下还是短期的将来,政府能够有依据有针对性对国家的收入支出状况作出正确的反映,最终达到合理利用财政资金,促进整体经济发展的效果。但是,目前我国对中期财政收入的预测研究几乎没有。实际上,税收收入预测在实践中的应用一直是亟需解决的问题,税收收入预测精准度的提升有助于国家对今后财政支出计划进行科学的安排,因此,对中期财政规划的制定来说,能否精确有效对税收收入进行预测至关重要。本文以云南为例,研究适用于云南省中期财政规划税收收入预测方法。文章结构如下:第一章为绪论。主要介绍了研究背景及意义,国内外关于税收收入预测方法和对中期财政规划的相关研究,并介绍了这些研究的创新点与不足。第二章主要阐述中期财政税收收入预测基本理论,总结国外中期财政税收预测常用的预测方法以及国外带来的启示,为下文在云南省中期财政收入预测的运用做下了铺垫。第三章为传统单项预测模型用在云南省中期财政规划税收收入预测及分析。分别用云南省1996-2010年的税收数据预测2011-2015年中期财政的税收收入,建立时间序列、回归分析以及人工神经网络单项预测模型,验证模型有效性,以及对其所估算的结果进行解析。第四章利用单项模型的优点,构建云南省中期财政规划税收收入组合预测模型并对结果进行探讨。第五章是模型的比较研究及对得出的结果进行经济分析部分。对三个单项模型和一个组合模型的预测结果以及效果进行对照分析,为云南省中期财政税收收入预测方法提供建议。第六章为总结与展望。
[Abstract]:Yunnan Province is the first province in the country to carry out the medium-term fiscal planning through the 13th Five-Year Plan. The core of the medium-term fiscal planning is to forecast the income and expenditure, match the financial resources, restrain the expenditure, and combine the medium-term budget with the government policy. Therefore, the study of reasonable tax forecasting method is helpful to accurately and scientifically arrange financial expenditure. In 2015, the State Council issued "opinions on the implementation of Medium-term Financial Planning Management" and put forward the implementation of Medium-Term Financial Planning Management. For this concept, there are many other expressions abroad, such as rolling budget, multi-year budget, medium-term expenditure framework, medium-term fiscal plan and so on. Although different documents describe it differently, the essence of these statements is the same, and the practice is basically the same, that is, a binding procedure linking the detailed medium-term budget estimate with the government's fiscal policy. Such financial planning usually takes a period of two to five years and, therefore, in formulating such plans, it is important to take into account the factors that may occur in the future in economic activities that may have a certain impact on the economy as a whole, And the change trend of fiscal and tax revenue in a few years to carry on the reasonable judgment. In this way, whether in the present or the short-term future, the government can make a correct response to the state of national income and expenditure, and finally achieve a reasonable use of financial funds to promote the overall economic development. However, at present, there is almost no research on medium-term fiscal revenue prediction in China. In fact, the application of tax revenue forecast in practice has always been an urgent problem to be solved. The improvement of the accuracy of tax revenue prediction is helpful for the country to make scientific arrangements for future fiscal expenditure plans. It is very important to predict tax revenue accurately and effectively for medium-term fiscal planning. This paper takes Yunnan as an example to study the method of tax revenue prediction in the medium-term financial planning of Yunnan Province. The structure of the article is as follows: the first chapter is the introduction. This paper mainly introduces the background and significance of the research, the methods of tax revenue prediction at home and abroad and the related research on the medium-term fiscal planning, and introduces the innovation points and shortcomings of these studies. The second chapter mainly expounds the basic theory of the medium-term fiscal revenue forecast, summarizes the common forecasting methods of the foreign medium-term fiscal revenue forecast and the enlightenment brought by foreign countries, which paves the way for the application of the following medium-term fiscal revenue forecast in Yunnan Province. In the third chapter, the traditional monomial forecasting model is used to forecast and analyze the tax revenue in the medium-term financial planning of Yunnan Province. Using the tax data of Yunnan Province from 1996 to 2010 to forecast the revenue of the fiscal revenue in the middle period of 2011-2015, the time series, regression analysis and single prediction model of artificial neural network are established to verify the validity of the model and to analyze the estimated results. The fourth chapter uses the advantages of the single model to construct the tax revenue combination forecasting model of the medium-term financial planning of Yunnan Province and discuss the results. The fifth chapter is the comparative study of the model and the economic analysis of the results. The prediction results and effects of three single models and one combination model are compared and analyzed, which provides suggestions for the medium-term fiscal revenue forecast in Yunnan Province. The sixth chapter is the summary and prospect.
【学位授予单位】:云南财经大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2017
【分类号】:F812.42
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