政府债务削减的政治经济学分析——来自发达国家长期历史的启示

发布时间：2018-07-15 22:04

【摘要】：始于2008年的金融危机严重损伤了发达经济体的公共财政状况,各国至今仍在艰难地寻找着债务问题的解药,如何实现成功的政府债务削减已经成为发达国家面临的集体困境。作者试图从长期历史中寻找这一问题的答案。通过对典型发达国家1880年至2009年间政府债务百年史中成功的债务削减周期进行实证分析,得出如下结论:首先,实现成功的政府债务削减更依赖支出紧缩型的财政巩固政策。其次,长期经济增长能够显著增加债务削减成功的概率。再次,通货膨胀与利率政策相配合能够起到更好的效果。最后,沉重的债务负担往往会成为各国政府化解债务困境的动力。然而,在不同的历史时期,由于世界经济体系的变迁与重塑、政府债务微观结构的变化,上述因素对于政府债务削减的影响存在着巨大差异,曾经被历史证明行之有效的政策在今天未必适用。此外,政治与法律因素同样扮演了重要角色:民主化程度更高以及实施财政规则的国家更易于实现成功的政府债务削减;与传统观点不同,国内政治竞争性的增强会使执政者更为关注目益恶化的债务僵局以赢得选民与声誉,可信地降低债务水平;不同的法律起源同样制约着政府债务的削减,普通法系能够为债务削减提供更为良好的法律环境以促进债务削减的成功。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis that began in 2008 has seriously damaged the public finances of developed economies, and countries are still struggling to find an antidote to the debt problem. How to achieve successful government debt reduction has become a collective dilemma faced by developed countries. The author tries to find the answer to this question from a long history. Through the empirical analysis of the successful debt reduction cycle in the 100-year history of government debt in the typical developed countries from 1880 to 2009, the following conclusions are drawn: first, the successful government debt reduction depends more on the fiscal consolidation policy of expenditure retrenchment. Second, long-term economic growth can significantly increase the probability of successful debt reduction. Third, the combination of inflation and interest rate policy can play a better role. Finally, a heavy debt burden is often a driving force for governments to resolve their debt woes. However, in different historical periods, due to the changes and remodeling of the world economic system and the changes in the microstructure of government debt, the effects of these factors on the reduction of government debt are greatly different. Policies that have been proven effective by history may not be applicable today. Moreover, political and legal factors also play an important role: countries with greater democratization and fiscal rules are more likely to achieve successful government debt reduction; contrary to conventional wisdom, An increase in domestic political competitiveness will make the rulers more concerned about the worsening debt deadlock in order to win voters and reputations and reliably reduce debt levels; different legal origins also constrain government debt reduction. The common law system can provide a better legal environment for debt reduction to promote the success of debt reduction.
【作者单位】：辽宁大学国际关系学院世界经济系;辽宁大学国际关系学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“转型国家金融发展与经济增长”(项目编号:13JJD810006) 国家社科基金重大项目“全球经济失衡与治理对我国开放型经济转型升级的影响与对策研究”(项目编号:14ZDA085)的资助
【分类号】：F812.5

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