财政支出结构、通货膨胀与非李嘉图制度——基于DSGE模型的分析

发布时间：2018-07-20 13:56

【摘要】：本文构建新凯恩斯DSGE模型,将财政支出细分为政府投资、消费以及转移支付,运用贝叶斯方法估计各类财政支出规则,结合反映中国特征的经济参数深入分析了货币政策外生决定情形下财政变量影响价格的作用机制。研究发现,即使货币政策保持独立,我国财政政策依然可以决定价格,财政政策非李嘉图制度的"债务通胀化"路径存在;政府投资短期最易引致债务和通胀风险,但长期可有效缓解债务压力,且对产出的挤入效应最强;转移支付虽然对产出的挤入效应偏低,但其引致的社会风险和福利损失最小。本文认为,政府在管理通胀时不应仅关注货币政策,还应注重货币与财政政策的协调配合,健全新常态下价格调控体系;在当前经济下行和通缩风险兼存时期,应加大积极性财政政策的力度,主要通过增强政府投资性支出促进社会投资和创新创业以助力供给侧优化升级和经济结构转型。
[Abstract]:In this paper, we construct a new Keynesian DSGE model, subdivide fiscal expenditure into government investment, consumption and transfer payment, and use Bayesian method to estimate all kinds of fiscal expenditure rules. Combined with the economic parameters which reflect the characteristics of China, this paper deeply analyzes the mechanism of fiscal variables influencing price under the circumstance of exogenous decision of monetary policy. It is found that even if monetary policy remains independent, China's fiscal policy can still determine the price, the non-Ricardo system of fiscal policy has a "debt inflation" path, and government investment is most likely to lead to debt and inflation risks in the short term. However, the long-term debt pressure can be effectively alleviated, and the crowding effect on output is the strongest. Although the crowding effect of transfer payment on output is low, the social risk and welfare loss caused by transfer payment are the least. This paper holds that the government should not only pay attention to monetary policy when managing inflation, but also pay attention to the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and perfect the price control system under the new normal condition. We should increase the intensity of positive fiscal policy and promote social investment and innovation through strengthening government investment expenditure to help supply-side optimization and upgrading and economic structural transformation.
【作者单位】：南京大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“基于物价调控的我国最优财政货币政策体制研究”(项目号:12&ZD064)的阶段性研究成果国家社会科学基金项目“新型城镇化进程中财政教育支出绩效评估研究”(项目号:15XGL005) 江苏省社科应用精品工程项目“南京城市金融竞争力研究”(项目号:16SYC-102) 安徽省教育厅人文社科重点项目“金融集聚促进安徽产业结构升级研究”(项目号:SK2015A431)的资助
【分类号】：F812.0

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