云南省土地财政及其经济影响效果的实证研究
发布时间：2018-08-12 07:51
【摘要】：改革开放以来,特别是1994年分税制后,伴随着经济的发展、城镇化的快速推进,地方政府的土地财政规模出现不断壮大的情形。地方财政严重依赖土地出让金的现象引起了公众和学界越来越多的关注,对其评价也褒贬不一,那么,地方政府土地财政问题到底呈现怎样一种状况?对经济社会的发展到底存在怎样的影响呢? 为了从较全面的角度评析土地财政,本文将在借鉴关于土地财政研究现状的基础上,运用文献研究法、实证分析法、规范分析法等方法分析土地财政及其经济影响。 本论文在对土地财政相关概念有所了解的基础上,以云南省为例,分析了云南省全省及滇中、滇西、滇东三区域的土地财政的现状、趋势及存在的问题,得出结论：(1)不论从全省还是分州市角度看,土地财政绝对收入规模(土地供应收入)均呈上升趋势,且从2008年开始加大了对土地财政收入的依赖,这在一定程度上加大地方政府的财政风险；(2)云南省全省土地供应以增加供应为主,依赖土地供应增加获得的土地供应收入来增加地方财政收入是不可持续的,并带来土地价值高涨、房价高升的风险；(3)云南省土地财政依赖的土地来源有向农地新增转变的趋势(尤其是2005年至2009年这几年间),若过度依赖农地的征收征用将不利于耕地的保护,并带来失地农民问题和寻租腐败风险。 在分析了现状、趋势和问题的基础上,本论文还构建了面板数据模型,就土地财政对全省及各区域的经济增长及对房价的影响做了实证分析,得出结论：(1)与一般预算收入和固定资产投资相比,云南省土地财政收入对经济增长的影响程度较小,土地财政的增减变动并不会过多的影响经济的发展；(2)在滇中、滇东、滇西三区域中,土地财政规模最大、经济发展最好的滇中地区,人均土地财政对该区经济增长的贡献最小,远低于滇东、滇西和云南省的平均贡献水平；(3)土地财政与滇中地区房价息息相关,可通过削弱土地财政和强调市场化的土地经营管理来调控该区房价；(4)滇西与滇东的房价可能更多与土地财政政策外因素相关。 最后在分析的基础上提出有关土地财政改革的政策建议,以期能为今后云南省乃至全国的地方财政收入改革(土地财政收入改革)提供更为科学的借鉴。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, especially after the tax distribution in 1994, with the development of economy and the rapid development of urbanization, the local government's land financial scale has been growing. The phenomenon that local finance relies heavily on land transfer funds has attracted more and more attention from the public and academic circles, and its evaluation is also mixed. So, what kind of situation does the land finance problem of local government present in the end? What is the impact on the economic and social development? In order to evaluate the land finance from a more comprehensive angle, this paper will analyze the land finance and its economic impact by the methods of literature research, empirical analysis, normative analysis and so on, on the basis of referring to the present situation of land finance research. On the basis of understanding the concept of land finance, taking Yunnan Province as an example, this paper analyzes the present situation, trend and existing problems of land finance in Yunnan province and three regions of central, western and eastern Yunnan. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the scale of absolute land revenue (land supply income) has been on the rise, and the dependence on land revenue has been increased since 2008. This increases the financial risk of local governments to a certain extent. (2) the land supply in Yunnan Province is mainly to increase supply, and it is not sustainable to increase local fiscal revenue by relying on the land supply income from the increase of land supply. It also brings the risk of high land value and high house price; (3) the land sources of land fiscal dependence in Yunnan Province have the tendency to change to new farmland (especially in the years from 2005 to 2009). If the expropriation and expropriation of agricultural land are excessively dependent on the farmland, it will be harmful to the protection of cultivated land. It also brings about the problem of land-losing farmers and the risk of rent-seeking corruption. On the basis of analyzing the current situation, trend and problems, this paper also constructs the panel data model, and makes an empirical analysis on the impact of land finance on the economic growth of the whole province and various regions, as well as on the housing price. The conclusions are as follows: (1) compared with the general budget income and fixed asset investment, the impact of land financial revenue on economic growth in Yunnan Province is relatively small, and the changes in land finance will not affect the economic development. Among the three regions of western Yunnan, the land finance scale is the largest and the economic development is the best in the central Yunnan region. The contribution of per capita land finance to the economic growth of this region is the least, which is far lower than the average contribution level of eastern Yunnan, western Yunnan and Yunnan Province. (3) Land finance is closely related to housing prices in central Yunnan, which can be regulated by weakening land finance and emphasizing market-oriented land management, and (4) housing prices in western Yunnan and eastern Yunnan may be more related to external factors of land finance policy. Finally, based on the analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on land finance reform, in order to provide a more scientific reference for the local fiscal revenue reform in Yunnan province and even the whole country in the future.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.41;F301
本文编号：2178409
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, especially after the tax distribution in 1994, with the development of economy and the rapid development of urbanization, the local government's land financial scale has been growing. The phenomenon that local finance relies heavily on land transfer funds has attracted more and more attention from the public and academic circles, and its evaluation is also mixed. So, what kind of situation does the land finance problem of local government present in the end? What is the impact on the economic and social development? In order to evaluate the land finance from a more comprehensive angle, this paper will analyze the land finance and its economic impact by the methods of literature research, empirical analysis, normative analysis and so on, on the basis of referring to the present situation of land finance research. On the basis of understanding the concept of land finance, taking Yunnan Province as an example, this paper analyzes the present situation, trend and existing problems of land finance in Yunnan province and three regions of central, western and eastern Yunnan. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the scale of absolute land revenue (land supply income) has been on the rise, and the dependence on land revenue has been increased since 2008. This increases the financial risk of local governments to a certain extent. (2) the land supply in Yunnan Province is mainly to increase supply, and it is not sustainable to increase local fiscal revenue by relying on the land supply income from the increase of land supply. It also brings the risk of high land value and high house price; (3) the land sources of land fiscal dependence in Yunnan Province have the tendency to change to new farmland (especially in the years from 2005 to 2009). If the expropriation and expropriation of agricultural land are excessively dependent on the farmland, it will be harmful to the protection of cultivated land. It also brings about the problem of land-losing farmers and the risk of rent-seeking corruption. On the basis of analyzing the current situation, trend and problems, this paper also constructs the panel data model, and makes an empirical analysis on the impact of land finance on the economic growth of the whole province and various regions, as well as on the housing price. The conclusions are as follows: (1) compared with the general budget income and fixed asset investment, the impact of land financial revenue on economic growth in Yunnan Province is relatively small, and the changes in land finance will not affect the economic development. Among the three regions of western Yunnan, the land finance scale is the largest and the economic development is the best in the central Yunnan region. The contribution of per capita land finance to the economic growth of this region is the least, which is far lower than the average contribution level of eastern Yunnan, western Yunnan and Yunnan Province. (3) Land finance is closely related to housing prices in central Yunnan, which can be regulated by weakening land finance and emphasizing market-oriented land management, and (4) housing prices in western Yunnan and eastern Yunnan may be more related to external factors of land finance policy. Finally, based on the analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on land finance reform, in order to provide a more scientific reference for the local fiscal revenue reform in Yunnan province and even the whole country in the future.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.41;F301
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