北京市西城区投融资平台负债预测及预警体制研究

发布时间：2018-08-17 16:43

【摘要】：中国特色的地方政府投融资平台于2008年迅速增多,随之地方债务也迅速膨胀。地方政府投融资平台对基础设施建设、产业升级、扩大内需起到了积极的作用,但是由于相关的法律法规监管的缺失,融资平台也存在运营风险,并隐藏着财政风险、社会风险。本文通过对地方政府投融资平台存在的问题和风险的研究,结合北京市投融资平台的实际情况,力求探究风险成因及风险传导的途径,重点研究北京西城区地方政府投融资平台负债预测,构建相应的地方债风险预警体系,并提出风险评估与防范的有效策略。首先,本文基于选题背景、选题内容、参考国内外地方政府投融资研究相关著述,综合分析提出本文的研究主题、研究内容和研究方法。介绍了国内外相关的研究成果和理论基础。第二,研究地方政府投融资平台风险形成的根源,从法律法规和制度根源上剖析形成的原因,指出分税制造成的中央与地方的财权和事权的不对称,地方税收不足,财力不足是根本问题所在。并提出地方政府作为地方债的担保方,主体不适格,地方融资平台内部治理机制不健全等均是风险的成因。地方政府的债务风险有向财政风险、金融风险、社会风险传导的威胁。第三,本文结合北京市西城区投融资平台的现状,具体分析了西城区投融资平台存在的问题和风险状况,构建了债务预测模型,并预测了西城区融资平台债务爆发的时点和强度。第四,在债务预测基础上,提出债务预警机制构建的指标体系,评价了西城区投融资平台的风险水平,并提出了相应的风险防范机制,以促进投融资平台走向市场化、规范化运营。依据现代企业制度厘清地方政府与企业的关系。
[Abstract]:Local government investment and financing platforms with Chinese characteristics grew rapidly in 2008, and so did local debt. The local government investment and financing platform has played a positive role in infrastructure construction, industrial upgrading, and expanding domestic demand. However, due to the lack of relevant laws and regulations, the financing platform also has operational risks and hidden financial risks. Social risk. Through the research on the problems and risks of the local government investment and financing platform and the actual situation of Beijing investment and financing platform, this paper tries to explore the causes of risk and the ways of risk transmission. This paper focuses on the debt prediction of local government investment and financing platform in Xicheng District of Beijing, constructs the corresponding risk warning system of local debt, and puts forward effective strategies for risk assessment and prevention. First of all, based on the background of the topic, the content of the topic, referring to the domestic and foreign local government investment and financing research related works, comprehensive analysis of this research theme, research content and research methods. The related research results and theoretical basis at home and abroad are introduced. Second, to study the origin of the risk formation of local government investment and financing platform, analyze the causes of the formation from the root of laws, regulations and systems, point out that the central and local governments' financial and administrative powers are asymmetric, and the local tax revenue is insufficient. Lack of financial resources is the fundamental problem. It also points out that the local government as the guarantor of local debt, the main body unsuitable, and the internal governance mechanism of the local financing platform are all the causes of the risk. The debt risk of local government is threatened by financial risk, financial risk and social risk transmission. Thirdly, according to the present situation of Xicheng District Investment and financing platform in Beijing, this paper analyzes the existing problems and risk situation of Xicheng District Investment and financing platform, and constructs a debt forecasting model. And forecast the time and intensity of debt outbreak of Xicheng District financing platform. Fourthly, on the basis of debt forecasting, the index system of debt warning mechanism is put forward, the risk level of investment and financing platform in Xicheng District is evaluated, and the corresponding risk prevention mechanism is put forward to promote the marketization of investment and financing platform. Standardized operation. Clarify the relationship between local government and enterprises according to modern enterprise system.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.7

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