异质性公共支出对劳动力迁移的门槛效应:理论模型与经验分析

发布时间：2018-10-20 17:40

【摘要】：现阶段劳动力迁移与地方政府公共品的提供密切联系。本文基于一般均衡理论框架,考察了异质性公共支出对劳动力迁移的净影响机制。理论模型揭示了生产型和消费型公共支出影响劳动力迁移的不同机制:生产型公共支出的净效应取决于"生产率效应"与"拥挤效应""税负效应"的平衡,消费型公共支出的净效应取决于"消费性效应"与"税负效应"的平衡;两类公共支出对劳动力迁移均存在明显的门槛效应且净效应方向相反。进一步,本文运用283个城市面板数据及非线性门槛计量模型进行实证检验发现,生产型公共支出、消费型公共支出对劳动力迁移的净影响分别呈现出倒"U"型和"U"型的单一门槛效应,且门槛值分别为766和167(人/平方公里)。引导劳动力合理有序迁移,除了调整公共支出规模,还可以根据劳动力迁移对不同类型公共支出的异质性反应,来实施差别化的公共财政政策。
[Abstract]:At the present stage, labor migration is closely related to the provision of public goods by local governments. Based on the framework of general equilibrium theory, this paper investigates the net influence mechanism of heterogeneous public expenditure on labor migration. The theoretical model reveals the different mechanisms of production-type and consumption-type public expenditure affecting labor migration: the net effect of production-type public expenditure depends on the balance between "productivity effect" and "crowding effect" and "tax burden effect". The net effect of consumer public expenditure depends on the balance between "consumption effect" and "tax burden effect", and the two types of public expenditure have obvious threshold effect on labor migration and the direction of net effect is opposite. Furthermore, this paper uses 283 urban panel data and nonlinear threshold measurement model to test and find that the public expenditure of production type, The net effect of consumptive public expenditure on labor migration shows a single threshold effect of inverted "U" type and "U" type respectively, and the threshold values are 766 and 167 (person / square kilometer), respectively. To guide the rational and orderly migration of labor force, in addition to adjusting the scale of public expenditure, the differentiated public finance policy can be implemented according to the heterogeneous response of labor migration to different types of public expenditure.
【作者单位】：上海财经大学财经研究所、城市与区域科学学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金一般项目“长三角城市群人口空间分布优化研究”(15BRK025) 上海财经大学研究生教育创新计划项目(CXJJ-2015-458);上海财经大学重点学科建设项目
【分类号】：F812.45;F249.2

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