经济新常态下财政可持续发展问题与对策——兼论财政供给侧改革的政策着力点

发布时间：2018-11-11 15:08

【摘要】：经济"新常态"下,由于经济减速和结构性减税的推进,政府的财政收入增速下降,而财政支出刚性增长,再加上日趋严峻的地方债务问题,财政的可持续发展面临巨大压力,部分地区的财政可持续性问题尤为严重。本文通过指标分析和跨时预算约束下的协整检验判断了我国的财政可持续性,发现我国的财政依存度已经超过合理区间,赤字率和债务率不断增加,新常态后的财政可持续性更弱,总体上财政可持续发展问题不容乐观。财政可持续发展和财政供给侧改革是相辅相成的关系,供给侧改革需要可持续的财政助力,而财政的可持续发展则需要通过供给侧结构性改革稳定经济增长为前提。为了实现财政的可持续发展,新常态下推进供给侧改革的财政政策着力点在于减税清费、投融资模式创新、投资结构与资金效率的优化和深化财税体制改革,协调中央与地方的财政关系,建立中长期财政规划,加强财政与金融的协同配合。
[Abstract]:Under the "new normal" of the economy, due to the economic slowdown and the promotion of structural tax cuts, the growth rate of the government's fiscal revenue has decreased, while the rigid growth of fiscal expenditure, coupled with the increasingly serious local debt problems, has put great pressure on the sustainable development of finance. Fiscal sustainability is particularly serious in some regions. In this paper, the financial sustainability of our country is judged by index analysis and cointegration test under the constraint of intertemporal budget. It is found that the degree of financial dependence has exceeded the reasonable range, and the deficit rate and debt rate have been increasing. The financial sustainability after the new normal is weaker, and the problem of financial sustainable development is not optimistic. Fiscal sustainable development and fiscal supply-side reform complement each other. The supply-side reform needs sustainable fiscal assistance, and the sustainable fiscal development needs to stabilize economic growth through supply-side structural reform. In order to realize the sustainable development of finance, the focus of the fiscal policy of promoting supply-side reform under the new normal condition lies in tax reduction, innovation of investment and financing mode, optimization of investment structure and fund efficiency, and deepening the reform of fiscal and taxation system. Coordinate the financial relationship between central and local governments, establish medium and long-term financial planning, and strengthen coordination between finance and finance.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院财政系;西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：陕西省社会科学基金项目“陕西经济增长的供给侧改革财政政策着力点研究”(项目编号:20160013)
【分类号】：F812.2

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