考虑决策者行为的突发事件应急响应风险决策方法研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 12:17

本文选题：突发事件　切入点：应急响应　出处：《东北大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,世界各地各种突发事件频繁发生,给社会安定和人民生命财产安全造成了巨大威胁。在这种背景下,及时有效地做出应急响应将有效降低突发事件所造成的损失。因此,在突发事件刚刚发生或出现某些征兆时,如何从多个备选应急方案或应急预案中选择最优方案以最大限度地减少突发事件所造成的损失,是一个具有实际意义的重要研究课题。本文以突发事件应急决策理论、方法和应用研究分析为切入点,主要研究了两个问题：第一个问题是,如何根据突发事件的已有信息对其可能的情景概率进行估算。在突发事件发生时,根据事件背景特征、专家知识和相似事件的历史经验对该突发事件可能出现的情景概率进行估算；第二个问题是,如何在考虑应急成本、事件后果的基础上针对突发事件进行应急方案的选择。由于在许多突发事件应急决策过程中,决策者往往不是完全理性的。所以本文中考虑决策者在面临高危害后果时行为规避的特征,在应急过程中引入行为决策的相关研究成果。本文主要完成了以下四个方面的研究工作： (1)提炼了一类突发事件风险决策问题。针对许多突发事件的应急问题都具有风险决策的特征,本文主要提炼了一类具有高危害结果的突发事件应急响应风险决策问题。 (2)提出了基于故障树分析的情景概率计算方法。首先根据专家知识和相似事件的历史经验,确定顶事件、中间事件和基本事件,并绘制故障树；然后,根据专家知识,确定不同应急方案下,基本事件出现的概率；最后,根据顶事件、中间事件和基本事件之间的逻辑关系,计算中间事件和顶事件的概率。 (3)提出了基于前景理论的突发事件应急方案选择方法。首先,计算突发事件不同情景的综合价值,即定量化描述针对不同情景的人员伤亡和财产损失的决策者综合心理感知；然后,计算突发事件不同情景的权重,即定量化描述针对不同情景出现的重要性程度的决策者心理感知；在此基础上,依据情景综合价值、情景权重和应急方案的成本投入,计算各应急方案的综合前景值,并依据综合前景值的大小确定应急方案排序。 (4)给出了考虑决策者行为的突发事件应急响应决策方法在传染病应急过程中的应用研究。本文以我国北方某高校A突现H1N1病例的应急决策过程为潜在应用背景。验证了本文提出的应急决策模型的合理性,其计算结果证明了模型的有效性。在论文最后,总结了本文的主要研究成果及结论、研究的主要贡献和局限以及需要进一步开展的工作。
[Abstract]:In recent years, a variety of emergencies occur frequently around the world, which pose a great threat to social stability and the safety of people's lives and property.In this context, timely and effective emergency response will effectively reduce the losses caused by emergencies.Therefore, how to select the optimal scheme from multiple emergency options or contingency plans in order to minimize the losses caused by emergencies, when the emergency has just occurred or some symptoms have appeared.It is an important research topic with practical significance.Based on the theory, method and application of emergency decision making, this paper mainly studies two problems: the first problem is how to estimate the probability of possible scenarios according to the existing information of emergencies.In the event of an emergency, according to the background characteristics of the event, expert knowledge and historical experience of similar events, the probability of the scenario that the emergency may occur is estimated. The second problem is how to consider the emergency cost.On the basis of the consequence of the incident, the emergency plan is chosen for the unexpected event.In many emergency decision-making processes, decision-makers are often not completely rational.In this paper, we consider the characteristics of behavior evading in the face of high harm consequences, and introduce the relevant research results of behavior decision in the process of emergency response.This paper mainly completed the following four aspects of research:1) A kind of emergency risk decision problem is refined.In view of the fact that many emergent problems of emergencies have the characteristics of risk decision, this paper presents a kind of risk decision problems of emergency response of emergencies with high hazard results.(2) A scenario probability calculation method based on fault tree analysis is proposed.First, based on the expert knowledge and the historical experience of similar events, the top event, intermediate event and basic event are determined, and the fault tree is drawn. Then, according to the expert knowledge, the probability of the occurrence of the basic event under different emergency plans is determined; finally, the probability of the occurrence of the basic event is determined according to the expert knowledge.According to the logical relationship between top event, intermediate event and basic event, the probability of intermediate event and top event is calculated.3) the method of selecting emergency plan based on prospect theory is put forward.First of all, the comprehensive value of different scenarios of emergencies is calculated, that is, the comprehensive psychological perception of decision-makers who quantitatively describe the casualties and property losses in different scenarios, and then the weights of different scenarios of emergencies are calculated.That is to say, quantificationally describe the psychological perception of decision-makers in view of the importance of different scenarios, and calculate the comprehensive foreground value of each emergency plan according to the comprehensive value of the scenario, the weight of the scenario and the cost input of the emergency plan.And according to the size of the comprehensive foreground value to determine the emergency program order.4) the research on the application of emergency response decision method considering the behavior of decision makers in the process of infectious disease emergency response is presented.The background of this paper is the emergency decision-making process of A emergent H1N1 cases in a university in the north of China.The rationality of the proposed emergency decision model is verified, and the validity of the model is proved by the calculation results.At the end of the paper, the main research results and conclusions, the main contributions and limitations of the research and the work needed to be carried out are summarized.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C934;D035.2

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