铁路快运货物运输需求分析与产品设计

发布时间：2018-05-05 06:12

本文选题：铁路快运 + 运量预测　；参考：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着电子商务产业的快速发展,与之相应的快运货物运输需求大幅增长,货运市场的变革推动运输方式转变,各种运输方式下的快运货物运输产品也急需转型升级。目前,中国铁路形成了既有线和高速线两套网络,技术水平高,运输能力强。与此同时,中国铁路总公司也提出加快推进铁路向现代物流企业转型以积极适应经济结构改革和社会发展现状,提供多样化的快运货物运输产品供市场选择。铁路发展快运货物运输,符合市场经济规律,同时有利于提高铁路快运货物运输市场份额,降低社会物流成本。本文的研究基于中国铁路总公司相关科技课题,对铁路快运货物市场的运输需求进行分析,并设计相应的产品体系。论文在分析总结国内外现有快运货物运输现状与产品类型的基础上,进行了以下六个方面的研究工作。(1)通过调研、检索文献资料对我国铁路快运市场进行PEST和SWOT分析,总结归纳我国铁路快运产品现状以及存在的问题,明确铁路快运市场目标定位。(2)对铁路快运货物运输需求进行分析。将铁路快运货物运输需求细分为铁路能够占领的快递货物市场份额和铁路现有快运货物两个部分,分别采用ARMA、回归预测组合模型,以及简单移动平均法、加权移动平均法组合模型进行预测。(3)基于货主需求的快运方式选择视角,采用多项Logit模型对货主运输方式的选择进行分析,计算各种快运方式市场份额和铁路快运市场需求预测结果;通过相关指标对铁路快运货源吸引城市进行筛选,设定城市快运货物吸引系数,进行城市间的OD量推算。(4)设计基于QFD的铁路快运货物运输产品,通过问卷调查等方式建立铁路快运货物运输产品质量屋,基于列车速度、运到时限、客户类型、经营模式、途中作业方式等构建铁路快运货物运输产品体系。(5)设计铁路快运货物列车开行方案,提出基于满足最小停站次数、运输需求、铁路快运运营效益的多目标规划开行方案优化模型。(6)以京沪通道为例,结合文中的方法,进行运输需求分析和开行方案设计。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of electronic commerce industry, the demand for express freight transportation has increased dramatically, and the transformation of freight market has promoted the transformation of transportation mode, and the products of express freight transportation under various modes of transportation are in urgent need of transformation and upgrading. At present, the Chinese railway has formed two sets of network of existing railway line and high-speed line, the technology level is high, the transportation capacity is strong. At the same time, China Railway Corporation also proposed to speed up the transformation of railway to modern logistics enterprises in order to actively adapt to the economic structure reform and social development, to provide a variety of express freight transport products for market choice. The development of express freight transportation by railway conforms to the law of market economy, at the same time, it is helpful to increase the market share of freight transportation and reduce the cost of social logistics. Based on the related scientific and technological issues of China Railway Corporation, this paper analyzes the transportation demand of railway express freight market and designs the corresponding product system. On the basis of analyzing and summarizing the current situation and product types of express freight transportation at home and abroad, this paper carries out the following six aspects of research work: 1) through investigation and investigation, the paper carries out the PEST and SWOT analysis of China's railway express transportation market through searching the literature data. This paper summarizes and summarizes the present situation and existing problems of railway express transportation products in China, and clarifies the target orientation of railway express transportation market. The demand of railway express freight transportation is subdivided into two parts: the market share of express goods that the railway can occupy and the existing express goods of railway. The ARMA-regression forecasting combined model and the simple moving average method are adopted respectively. The weighted moving average method is combined with model to forecast. (3) based on the choice of express mode of cargo owner's demand, this paper uses multiple Logit models to analyze the choice of cargo owner's transportation mode. Calculate the market share of all kinds of express transportation methods and the forecast result of the demand of the railway express transportation market, screen the cities attracted by the railway express freight sources through the relevant indexes, and set up the attraction coefficient of the urban express goods, Carrying on the calculation of OD quantity between cities. (4) designing the railway express freight transport products based on QFD, establishing the quality house of railway express freight transport products by means of questionnaire survey, based on the train speed, time limit, customer type, management mode, etc. Construction of railway express freight transport product system. 5) Design of railway express freight train operation scheme, which is based on satisfying the minimum stop number and transportation demand. The optimization model of multi-objective programming for railway express operation efficiency. (6) taking the Beijing-Shanghai corridor as an example, combining the method in this paper, the analysis of transportation demand and the design of the opening scheme are carried out.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F532.6

【参考文献】