中国旱灾损失预测与分布及其应对策略研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 18:29

本文选题：旱灾预测　切入点：灰色Elman神经网络　出处：《云南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：旱灾发生频繁、影响广并且持续时间一般较长、后延影响大,是当今主要自然灾害之一。目前我国采用的旱灾救济措施主要由政府财政负担,虽存在部分旱灾保险补偿,但与发达国家30%—50%的保险补偿率对比,我国保险没有发挥其应有的责任,对于灾后补偿及灾后重建的作用微乎其微。现在中国旱灾风险管理形势为：第一,保险覆盖面不“严实”。我国巨灾基本靠国家补贴,财政补贴保费,是用政府有限的资金“撬动”巨大的保险市场,在更大范围内分散风险、筹集补偿资金。根据现行政策,位于粮食主产区的省份都能得到中央财政的农险保费补贴,而其他地方则有变数——只有省里提出申请并保证配套资金,中央财政才给补贴。然而,由于地方财力悬殊,支持农险的政策大都缺乏长效机制。政策引擎乏力,农民就不愿投保,保险公司也不肯边边角角地开发市场。第二,巨灾保险体系不健全。如今各省的“巨灾基金”大都自筹自用,一旦发生如西南旱灾这样的大面积绝收,省内的巨灾基金也无法提供全面保障。本文首先介绍了我国旱灾形成及分布特征；其次,利用灰色模型及Elman神经网络模型对我国旱灾的损失额进行预测并对比检验预测效果；再次,运用基于PORT的极值模型对我国旱灾绝收面积进行了拟合测试；最后,针对目前我国应对旱灾工作中存在的问题提出了应对对策及建议。总之,我们认为旱灾是可以有效防范的。若能切实理顺干旱的管理体制,实现资源的可持续利用,制定有效的法规和应对特大旱灾的规划,切实做好由国家到社区的水源与粮食储备工作,有效掌握旱情与灾情信息,建立科学的预警机制,我国可从根本上摆脱被动局面,将旱灾的影响降至最低。
[Abstract]:Drought occurs frequently, affects widely and lasts for a long time. It is one of the main natural disasters nowadays. At present, the drought relief measures adopted in our country are mainly borne by the government, although some drought insurance compensation exists. However, compared with the 30-50% insurance compensation rate in developed countries, China's insurance has not played its due responsibility and has very little effect on post-disaster compensation and post-disaster reconstruction. The current situation of drought risk management in China is as follows: first, The coverage of insurance is not "strict." China's catastrophe basically depends on state subsidies and financial subsidies for insurance premiums. It is to "leverage" the huge insurance market with the government's limited funds, spread risks in a wider scope, and raise compensation funds. According to current policies, Provinces in the main grain-producing areas can receive subsidies from the central government for agricultural insurance premiums, while other places have variables-only if the provinces apply and guarantee matching funds, the central government will subsidize them. However, because of the disparity in local financial resources, Most of the policies supporting agricultural insurance lack a long-term mechanism. With a weak policy engine, farmers are unwilling to take out insurance, and insurance companies do not want to develop the market in a corner. Second, Catastrophe insurance system is not sound. Nowadays, most of the "catastrophe funds" in the provinces are self-financing, and once a large area such as the southwest drought is out of revenue, the catastrophe funds in the province will not be able to provide comprehensive protection. This paper first introduces the characteristics of drought formation and distribution in China; secondly, uses grey model and Elman neural network model to forecast the amount of drought losses in China and compares the prediction results. The extreme value model based on PORT is used to fit and test the area of drought end harvest in China. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward in view of the problems existing in the drought response in China. In short, we believe that drought can be effectively prevented. If we can effectively rationalize the drought management system, realize the sustainable use of resources, formulate effective laws and regulations and plan for coping with severe droughts, In order to get rid of the passive situation and minimize the effects of drought, we can effectively grasp the information of drought and disaster and set up a scientific early warning mechanism to do a good job of water resources and grain storage from the country to the community.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D632.5

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