基于改进群决策法的突发事件应急决策应用研究

发布时间：2018-04-13 04:33

本文选题：应急决策 + 群决策　；参考：《南京邮电大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：近几年来,各类突发事件在世界各地频繁发生,这使得相关部门不得不提升对突发事件应急决策和管理的关注度。由于应急事件具有环境复杂、事态多变、时间紧迫等特点,一个事件往往涉及各种因素,各因素之间又存在着错综复杂的关系。若能够根据突发事件的发展状况和变化,做出及时、有效的决策,不但可以及时降低损失,还能在某种程度上阻止事件的进一步恶化。在社会、经济、科学飞速发展的今天,决策者面临的决策环境往往更加复杂。想要尽快做出正确、合理的应急决策,往往还要依靠集体的智慧。群决策就是利用集体的智慧让来自不同部门的专业人员共同参与制定对事件的处置决策。在分析传统群决策法中抽取专家的盲目性、未考虑专家历史决策正确率以及多数人也可能做出错误决策等不足之处的基础上,提出了以下三点改进建议:(1)对于传统群决策中“少数服从多数”的原则进行了调整;(2)对于传统群决策法的决策过程进行了改进;(3)将事件类型加入决策过程作为考虑因素。充分利用突发事件应急方案执行后提供的信息,提炼出专家的历史决策正确率,将其以反馈权重的形式参与到调整专家权重的过程中,提出了一个基于反馈权重的专家权重调整算法,进而构建起一个基于群决策法的突发事件应急决策模型。本文将改进后的应急决策模型应用于风电场对应急预案的评价选择的案例中,把改进前后的专家权重、对方案排序以及群决策对方案的打分进行了对比,并就其产生差异的原因进行具体阐述说明,证明将专家历史决策正确率作为一项考虑因素用于调整专家权重的必要性,为群决策的研究提供更多有价值的参考信息。
[Abstract]:In recent years, all kinds of emergencies occur frequently all over the world, which makes the relevant departments have to raise the level of attention to emergency decision-making and management.Because emergency events have the characteristics of complex environment, changeable state of affairs, time is urgent and so on, an event often involves a variety of factors, and there is a complex relationship between each factor.If we can make timely and effective decision according to the development and change of the emergency, we can not only reduce the loss in time, but also prevent the further deterioration of the event to some extent.With the rapid development of society, economy and science, the decision-making environment is often more complicated.To make correct and reasonable emergency decisions as soon as possible, it is often necessary to rely on collective wisdom.Group decision-making is the use of collective wisdom to bring together professionals from different departments to make decisions on how to deal with events.On the basis of analyzing the blindness of extracting experts in the traditional group decision making method, not taking into account the correct rate of experts' historical decision making and the fact that most people may make wrong decisions, etc.This paper puts forward the following three suggestions for improvement: 1) the principle of "minority by majority" in traditional group decision making is adjusted. (2) the decision process of traditional group decision making method is improved 3) the event type is added to the decision-making process as a consideration factor.Taking full advantage of the information provided after the implementation of the emergency plan, extracting the correct rate of historical decision of the expert, taking the form of feedback weight to participate in the process of adjusting the expert weight,An expert weight adjustment algorithm based on feedback weight is proposed, and then an emergency decision model based on group decision is constructed.In this paper, the improved emergency decision model is applied to the case of evaluation and selection of emergency plan by wind farm. The weight of experts before and after improvement, the ranking of scheme and the scoring of group decision are compared.The reasons for the differences are explained in detail, which proves that it is necessary to use the correct rate of expert historical decision as a consideration factor to adjust the weight of experts, and to provide more valuable reference information for the study of group decision making.
【学位授予单位】：南京邮电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D035

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