非常规突发事件的情景建模与推演研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 20:21

本文选题：非常规突发事件 + 知识元　；参考：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会经济的飞速发展,各种影响国家安全和社会秩序的不确定或不稳定的因素日益增多,造成非常规突发事件的发生频率增高,其不仅对人们的生命和财产安全构成严重的威胁,同时还严峻的考验着政府的执政能力。“情景-应对”型模式被认为是当前应对非常规突发事件最有效的应急管理模式,而非常规突发事件的情景是一个涉及自然、生态、社会和心理等变化万千、混沌百态的要素的复杂系统。因此,如何构建一种能够融合多学科、多领域知识的情景推演方法为非常规突发事件的应对提供参考依据是“情景-应对”理论体系研究的重要内容之一。本文结合系统科学和知识管理等相关理论提出了一种基于知识元模型的非常规突发事件的情景表示方法,然后在此基础上探讨了情景的推演方法,进行了如下研究。第一，，对非常规突发事件、情景推演等相关理论研究进行了综述分析,对本文所要研究内容的相关概念进行了界定。第二,首先对本文所使用的知识元模型进行了简述；然后结合知识元模型的特征,提出了基于知识元的情景表示模型,从更细粒度分析了情景要素以及要素间的关系；最后,结合认知科学的思想,给出了情景模型构建的思路。第三,在情景的表示基础上,利用知识元间的关系描述事件的演变规律,并提出了情景的推演框架；然后进一步提出了一种适合非常规突发事件情景分析的一般推演模型；最后,针对情景推演分析过程中的不确定性问题,将情景中的不确定关系通过模糊规则描述表达,通过情景信息和模糊规则的匹配推演分析情景的演化结果及其可能性,进而为决策者进行决策提供依据。第四,将本文提出的情景推演方法应用到舟曲泥石流事件,利用从实际案例验证本文方法的有效性和科学性。本文的研究是对“情景-应对”模式下的情景表示和推演研究的一次有益的尝试,对其理论体系的研究具有一定的探索意义。尤其是不确定条件下情景推演方法研究,进一步丰富了“情景-应对”的研究内容,对政府处理具体非常规突发事件时能够实现快速响应、减少事件带来的伤害和损失具有重要的应用价值。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy, the uncertain or unstable factors affecting national security and social order are increasing day by day, resulting in an increase in the frequency of unconventional emergencies. It not only poses a serious threat to people's life and property safety, but also severely tests the government's governing ability. The "situation-response" model is considered to be the most effective emergency management model for unconventional emergencies at present, rather than a scenario involving natural, ecological, social and psychological changes. The complex system of the elements of chaos. Therefore, how to construct a scenario inference method which can integrate multi-disciplinary and multi-domain knowledge is one of the important contents of the theoretical system of "situation-response". In this paper, based on the theories of system science and knowledge management, a method of scenario representation of unconventional emergencies based on knowledge element model is proposed, and then the deducing method of scenario is discussed, and the following research is carried out. First, the related theoretical studies of unconventional emergencies, scenario extrapolation and so on are summarized and analyzed, and the related concepts of the content of this paper are defined. Secondly, firstly, the knowledge element model used in this paper is briefly introduced, and then a scenario representation model based on knowledge element is proposed, which analyzes the relationship between the scene elements and the elements from a finer granularity. Combined with the idea of cognitive science, the idea of constructing situational model is given. Thirdly, on the basis of the representation of the situation, the relationship between the knowledge elements is used to describe the evolution of the event, and the inference framework of the scene is proposed, and then a general inference model suitable for the scenario analysis of unconventional emergencies is put forward. Finally, aiming at the uncertainty in the process of scenario deduction, the uncertain relations in the scenario are expressed by fuzzy rules, and the evolutionary results and the possibility of scenario are analyzed by the matching of scenario information and fuzzy rules. And then provide the basis for the decision-maker. Fourthly, the scenario deduction method proposed in this paper is applied to the debris flow events in Zhouqu, and the validity and scientific nature of this method are verified by practical cases. The study of this paper is a useful attempt to study the situation representation and deduction under the "situation-response" model, and has certain exploration significance to the study of its theoretical system. In particular, the research on scenario extrapolation method under uncertain conditions further enriches the research content of "situation-response", and can achieve rapid response to specific unconventional emergencies handled by the government. Reducing the damage and loss caused by events has important application value.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D63;TP18

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