基于区域风险的城镇应急设施多目标布局优化研究
发布时间：2018-10-17 17:26
【摘要】：应急救援是城镇事故、灾难防范屏障的最后一层,施救效果的好坏直接影响着突发事件对城镇造成的人员伤亡、财产损失的程度。作为消防队、医疗队等应急救援队伍的空间容区,合规、合理地选择应急设施的位置对于安全基础薄弱的中小城镇防范各类事故灾难、自然灾害工作开展非常重要。本文针对目前我国大部分中小城镇存在的应急设施数量有限、设施布局规划不科学、区域风险变大等问题,对应急设施的选址优化进行了研究。应急设施的布局优化问题是一个思量多种因素的数学问题,目的是研究如何通过科学、合规的分布应急设施,实现具备长期性、稳定性特点的设施使用效力的最大化。作为应急救援实施的依托体,应急设施本身具有标准化、定向化的服务职能要求,应急设施需要考量其在区域事故防范系统中的位置,在了解区域安全水平情况下进行布局。首先,文章在分析了目前国内外对应急选址问题优缺点基础上,通过比较各类风险评价方法,根据ARAMIS方法风险的数学表征,搭建了基于脆弱性理念的城镇生产安全事故区域风险计算模型。并以生产事故为防范对象,对城镇脆弱性评价和生产安全事故风险评价的内容要素做出了分析,构建了城镇地域脆弱性评价指标体系及生产经营单位安全性评价指标体系。同时,在比较经典的最大覆盖模型、位置集合覆盖模型、P-中心问题、P-中值问题等设施布局模型的优缺点基础上,分析了城镇应急设施选址时应当考虑的因素和目标,建立了把施救效果最大、覆盖范围最大、风险防备程度最大、成本最低作为布局目标的应急设施多目标布局优化模型,并详细介绍了各种优化模型算法的原理及步骤。最后,结合所构建的应急设施选址优化模型,选取山东兰陵县为对象进行了该县消防站的布局优化问题计算,利用改进NSGA-II算法的gamultiobj函数求解模型,根据计算所得的Pareto最优解研究提出城镇应急设施布局优化的选址策略,让决策者能够根据现实情况选址合理、合规、科学的应急设施布局方案,实现有限资源的高效利用,保障应急救援行动及时有效地进行,降低突发事件导致的人员伤亡和环境破坏。
[Abstract]:Emergency rescue is the last layer of disaster prevention barrier in cities and towns. The effect of rescue directly affects the degree of casualties and property losses caused by unexpected events in cities and towns. As the space capacity of emergency rescue teams such as fire brigade and medical team, it is very important to choose the location of emergency facilities reasonably for the small and medium-sized towns with weak safety foundation to prevent all kinds of accidents and disasters and to carry out natural disasters. Aiming at the problems of limited number of emergency facilities, unscientific layout of facilities and increasing regional risk in most small and medium-sized cities and towns in China, this paper studies the location optimization of emergency facilities. The layout optimization of emergency facilities is a mathematical problem with many factors in mind. The purpose of this problem is to study how to maximize the utility effectiveness of facilities with long-term and stable characteristics through scientific and compliant distributed emergency facilities. As the support of emergency rescue implementation, emergency facilities have standardized and targeted service function requirements. Emergency facilities need to consider their position in the regional accident prevention system and layout under the understanding of regional safety level. Firstly, on the basis of analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of the emergency location problem at home and abroad, the paper compares various risk evaluation methods, according to the mathematical representation of the risk of ARAMIS method. The regional risk calculation model of urban production safety accidents based on vulnerability theory is established. Taking the production accident as the prevention object, this paper analyzes the content elements of the urban vulnerability assessment and the production safety accident risk assessment, and constructs the evaluation index system of the urban regional vulnerability and the safety evaluation index system of the production and management units. At the same time, on the basis of comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the classical maximum coverage model, location set coverage model, P- center problem, P- median problem and other facilities layout models, this paper analyzes the factors and objectives that should be considered in the location of emergency facilities in cities and towns. The multi-objective layout optimization model of emergency facilities with the largest rescue effect, the largest coverage, the largest degree of risk preparedness and the lowest cost is established. The principle and steps of various optimization model algorithms are introduced in detail. Finally, combined with the optimized location model of emergency facilities, the layout optimization problem of fire station in Lanling County of Shandong Province is calculated, and the gamultiobj function of improved NSGA-II algorithm is used to solve the model. According to the Pareto optimal solution, the location strategy of urban emergency facility layout optimization is put forward, which enables the decision-maker to choose a reasonable, compliant and scientific emergency facility layout scheme according to the actual situation, so as to realize the efficient utilization of limited resources. To ensure that emergency rescue operations are carried out in a timely and effective manner to reduce casualties and environmental damage caused by emergencies.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D63
，
本文编号：2277413
[Abstract]:Emergency rescue is the last layer of disaster prevention barrier in cities and towns. The effect of rescue directly affects the degree of casualties and property losses caused by unexpected events in cities and towns. As the space capacity of emergency rescue teams such as fire brigade and medical team, it is very important to choose the location of emergency facilities reasonably for the small and medium-sized towns with weak safety foundation to prevent all kinds of accidents and disasters and to carry out natural disasters. Aiming at the problems of limited number of emergency facilities, unscientific layout of facilities and increasing regional risk in most small and medium-sized cities and towns in China, this paper studies the location optimization of emergency facilities. The layout optimization of emergency facilities is a mathematical problem with many factors in mind. The purpose of this problem is to study how to maximize the utility effectiveness of facilities with long-term and stable characteristics through scientific and compliant distributed emergency facilities. As the support of emergency rescue implementation, emergency facilities have standardized and targeted service function requirements. Emergency facilities need to consider their position in the regional accident prevention system and layout under the understanding of regional safety level. Firstly, on the basis of analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of the emergency location problem at home and abroad, the paper compares various risk evaluation methods, according to the mathematical representation of the risk of ARAMIS method. The regional risk calculation model of urban production safety accidents based on vulnerability theory is established. Taking the production accident as the prevention object, this paper analyzes the content elements of the urban vulnerability assessment and the production safety accident risk assessment, and constructs the evaluation index system of the urban regional vulnerability and the safety evaluation index system of the production and management units. At the same time, on the basis of comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the classical maximum coverage model, location set coverage model, P- center problem, P- median problem and other facilities layout models, this paper analyzes the factors and objectives that should be considered in the location of emergency facilities in cities and towns. The multi-objective layout optimization model of emergency facilities with the largest rescue effect, the largest coverage, the largest degree of risk preparedness and the lowest cost is established. The principle and steps of various optimization model algorithms are introduced in detail. Finally, combined with the optimized location model of emergency facilities, the layout optimization problem of fire station in Lanling County of Shandong Province is calculated, and the gamultiobj function of improved NSGA-II algorithm is used to solve the model. According to the Pareto optimal solution, the location strategy of urban emergency facility layout optimization is put forward, which enables the decision-maker to choose a reasonable, compliant and scientific emergency facility layout scheme according to the actual situation, so as to realize the efficient utilization of limited resources. To ensure that emergency rescue operations are carried out in a timely and effective manner to reduce casualties and environmental damage caused by emergencies.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D63
，
本文编号：2277413
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