辽宁省大学生创业活动的系统仿真模型研究与分析

发布时间：2018-04-18 18:52

本文选题：大学生创业 + 创业机理　；参考：《大连工业大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：自二十世纪八十年代,创业活动和创业者给经济的可持续发展带来了巨大的动力,并且创业在技术创新、推动科技成果转化、促进就业方面起到了重要的作用。近几年来,大学生创业越来越受到人们的关注,关于大学生创业的研究也越来越多,但是,现有的研究主要集中于单个因素静态研究,关于因素之间的动态关系和运行机理的研究比较薄弱,对创业活动影响因素存在地域差异缺乏认识。本文为提高大学生创业率和辽宁省政府制定创业政策提供软科学支持,试图揭示辽宁省大学生创业活动的运行机理,因此,本文将创业活动按照创业者分为三个阶段进行研究,采用系统动力学方法分析整个系统的内生动力和外生环境,并通过系统动力学模型将大学生创业因素进行明确化和定量化,在VENSIM软件中进行模拟预测和政策分析。本文的研究内容主要分为五部分：首先,介绍了本文的研究目的、研究内容和方法。第二,对大学生创业的理论进行梳理和分析,探讨大学生创业影响因素。第三,结合理论和辽宁省的创业情况,确定辽宁省大学生创业活动的内生变量和外变量,建立辽宁省大学生创业活动的系统动力学模型。第四,确定模型中的参数,并对模型进行模拟试验和政策分析。最后,结合模拟结果提出合理的建议。通过模型模拟得出：创业教育对创业技能的影响系数和创业企业平均生命周期是政策变量,二者分别反映了创业活动系统的内生动力和外生环境。在保持其他变量不变的情况下,增加其参数值,能更大幅度的提高成功创业者人数。
[Abstract]:Since 1980s, entrepreneurial activities and entrepreneurs have brought great impetus to the sustainable development of economy, and entrepreneurship has played an important role in technological innovation, promoting the transformation of scientific and technological achievements and promoting employment.In recent years, more and more attention has been paid to the entrepreneurship of college students, and more and more researches have been done on the entrepreneurship of college students. However, the existing researches mainly focus on the static studies of single factors.The research on the dynamic relationship and operation mechanism of the factors is relatively weak, and there is a lack of understanding of the regional differences of the influencing factors of entrepreneurial activities.This paper provides soft science support to improve the entrepreneurial rate of college students and Liaoning provincial government to formulate entrepreneurial policies, and tries to reveal the operating mechanism of entrepreneurial activities of college students in Liaoning Province. Therefore, this paper divides entrepreneurial activities into three stages according to entrepreneurs.The system dynamics method is used to analyze the endogenous power and exogenous environment of the whole system. Through the system dynamics model, the entrepreneurial factors of college students are defined and quantified, and the simulation prediction and policy analysis are carried out in VENSIM software.The research content of this paper is divided into five parts: firstly, the purpose, content and method of this paper are introduced.Second, combing and analyzing the theory of college students' entrepreneurship and discussing the influencing factors of college students' entrepreneurship.Thirdly, combined with the theory and the situation of the entrepreneurship in Liaoning Province, the endogenous and external variables of the entrepreneurial activities of the college students in Liaoning Province are determined, and the system dynamics model of the entrepreneurial activities of the college students in Liaoning Province is established.Fourth, determine the parameters of the model, and model simulation test and policy analysis.Finally, reasonable suggestions are put forward based on the simulation results.Through model simulation, it is concluded that the influence coefficient of entrepreneurship education on entrepreneurial skills and the average life cycle of entrepreneurial enterprises are policy variables, which reflect the endogenous motivation and exogenous environment of entrepreneurial activity system respectively.While keeping the other variables unchanged, increasing the value of its parameters can greatly increase the number of successful entrepreneurs.
【学位授予单位】：大连工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：G647.38

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