基于系统动力学的民办高校项目经济评价
发布时间：2018-10-29 09:27
【摘要】：随着我国经济、科技的高速发展,人们对自身的教育层次需求不断提升,社会、市场对高等人才的需求也相应增加。为了更好的发展我国的教育事业,也为了响应民众的需求,2013年7月由国务院总理李克强主持召开的国务院常务会议,研究推进政府向社会力量购买公共服务。该会议为我国的民办高校事业的快速发展提供良好的机遇。但是,伴随着民办高校投资的日渐升温,一定数量的民办高校项目对经济评价不够重视,匆匆上马,最终在建成运营后濒临破产甚至已经破产,这对于国家、投资者以及在该校就读的学生及其家庭都造成了一定的损失。因此,对民办高校项目进行科学、有效的经济评价显得尤为必要。项目的经济评价,就是投资决策之前站在投资者的角度,分别从市场、经济、财务、和社会等几个方面对拟投资项目进行的综合的调查研究、分析对比及财务状况预测,并并以此为依据考察该项目的可行性,并选取最优方案。系统动力学是一门以反馈控制论为基础的动态行为应用科学,其透过系统行为和其内部各要素之间的依存关系,通过计算机仿真模型的建立和运行,发掘系统及其内部各要素发生各种变化的因果关系,以达到用全新的视角解决动态的社会经济问题。本文研究的民办高校项目的经济评价计算期包括了建设期和运营期,是一个大系统。本文基于系统动力学分别从投融资、需求、师资,收入、支出、结余、现金流及净现值七大方面构建民办高校项目经济评价模型,利用系统动力学专业语言更为直观地反映该项目经济评价系统影响因素之间的关系,为该类项目投资决策提供创新性的方法和合理可靠的依据。本文以XX学院为例,利用Vensim仿真软件对该校20年内的建设、运营进行模拟预测,通过实际获取的模型参数检测模型的有效性,依据运行获得的净现值判别项目的可行性。同时,进行敏感性分析,通过模拟找出影响该项目经济评价结果的关键因素,为项目投资决策提供科学依据,为实际实施提供关注重点,为运营目的实现提供科学依据。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and science and technology in our country, people's demand for their own education level is rising constantly, and the demand for higher talents in society and market is also increasing accordingly. In order to better develop our education and respond to the needs of the people, the State Council executive meeting, chaired by Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council, was held in July 2013 to study how to promote the government to purchase public services from social forces. The conference provides a good opportunity for the rapid development of private colleges and universities in our country. However, with the increasing investment of private colleges and universities, a certain number of private university projects do not pay enough attention to the economic evaluation, rush to start, and finally after completion and operation, they are on the verge of bankruptcy or even have gone bankrupt. This is of great importance to the country. Investors, as well as the students and their families in the school, caused some losses. Therefore, it is necessary to carry on scientific and effective economic evaluation to the private university project. The economic evaluation of the project is the comprehensive investigation and study, analysis, comparison and prediction of the financial situation of the proposed investment project from the market, economic, financial, and social aspects, respectively, from the perspective of the investor before the investment decision. Based on this, the feasibility of the project is investigated, and the optimal scheme is selected. System dynamics is an applied science of dynamic behavior based on feedback cybernetics. In order to solve the dynamic social and economic problems with a new perspective, the causality of the system and its internal elements is explored. The economic evaluation and calculation period of the private university project studied in this paper includes the construction period and the operation period, which is a large system. Based on system dynamics, this paper constructs the economic evaluation model of private colleges and universities from seven aspects: investment and financing, demand, teachers, income, expenditure, balance, cash flow and net present value. The relationship between the influencing factors of the economic evaluation system of the project is reflected more intuitively by the professional language of system dynamics, which provides an innovative method and reasonable and reliable basis for the investment decision of this kind of project. Taking XX College as an example, this paper uses Vensim simulation software to simulate and predict the construction and operation of the school within 20 years. The validity of the model parameters is tested by the actual model parameters, and the feasibility of the project is judged according to the net present value obtained from the operation. At the same time, sensitivity analysis is carried out to find out the key factors influencing the result of economic evaluation of the project through simulation, to provide scientific basis for project investment decision, to provide the focus for practical implementation and to provide scientific basis for the realization of operational purpose.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：N941.3;G648.7
本文编号：2297298
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and science and technology in our country, people's demand for their own education level is rising constantly, and the demand for higher talents in society and market is also increasing accordingly. In order to better develop our education and respond to the needs of the people, the State Council executive meeting, chaired by Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council, was held in July 2013 to study how to promote the government to purchase public services from social forces. The conference provides a good opportunity for the rapid development of private colleges and universities in our country. However, with the increasing investment of private colleges and universities, a certain number of private university projects do not pay enough attention to the economic evaluation, rush to start, and finally after completion and operation, they are on the verge of bankruptcy or even have gone bankrupt. This is of great importance to the country. Investors, as well as the students and their families in the school, caused some losses. Therefore, it is necessary to carry on scientific and effective economic evaluation to the private university project. The economic evaluation of the project is the comprehensive investigation and study, analysis, comparison and prediction of the financial situation of the proposed investment project from the market, economic, financial, and social aspects, respectively, from the perspective of the investor before the investment decision. Based on this, the feasibility of the project is investigated, and the optimal scheme is selected. System dynamics is an applied science of dynamic behavior based on feedback cybernetics. In order to solve the dynamic social and economic problems with a new perspective, the causality of the system and its internal elements is explored. The economic evaluation and calculation period of the private university project studied in this paper includes the construction period and the operation period, which is a large system. Based on system dynamics, this paper constructs the economic evaluation model of private colleges and universities from seven aspects: investment and financing, demand, teachers, income, expenditure, balance, cash flow and net present value. The relationship between the influencing factors of the economic evaluation system of the project is reflected more intuitively by the professional language of system dynamics, which provides an innovative method and reasonable and reliable basis for the investment decision of this kind of project. Taking XX College as an example, this paper uses Vensim simulation software to simulate and predict the construction and operation of the school within 20 years. The validity of the model parameters is tested by the actual model parameters, and the feasibility of the project is judged according to the net present value obtained from the operation. At the same time, sensitivity analysis is carried out to find out the key factors influencing the result of economic evaluation of the project through simulation, to provide scientific basis for project investment decision, to provide the focus for practical implementation and to provide scientific basis for the realization of operational purpose.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：N941.3;G648.7
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