基于人口与城镇化视角的中国碳排放驱动因素探究

发布时间：2017-12-27 10:16

本文关键词：基于人口与城镇化视角的中国碳排放驱动因素探究　出处：《当代财经》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

更多相关文章： 绿色发展 碳排放 城镇化 经济结构

【摘要】：基于人口与城镇化视角,构建了中国碳排放七大驱动因素模型,并采用LMDI分解法计算出各因素的影响效果。研究发现:(1)从变量作用方向来看,对碳排放一直保持正向促进作用的有人口规模、城镇化率、城镇就业率和能源强度,对碳排放保持负向抑制作用的是就业的城乡结构,经济结构和碳排放强度则呈现分阶段正负作用交错的形态;(2)从变量作用效果的大小来看,城镇化率、就业的城乡结构、经济结构和能源强度的影响较为显著,而人口规模、城镇就业率和碳排放强度的影响效果则相对较弱;(3)单一城镇化率的提高带来的碳排放增加不可避免,但是综合考虑城镇化率、城镇人口就业率和就业的城乡结构等影响因素,则城镇化率提高与环境成本降低存在双赢空间。
[Abstract]:Based on the perspective of population and urbanization, the seven driving factors model of carbon emissions in China is constructed, and the effect of each factor is calculated by the LMDI decomposition method. The study found that: (1) from the variable direction of view, has maintained a positive effect on carbon emissions is the size of the population, urbanization rate, employment rate and energy intensity, carbon emissions remain negative is urban and rural employment structure, economic structure and carbon emission intensity has positive and negative effects goes in stages the form; (2) from the effects of variable size, influence the rate of urbanization, urban and rural employment structure, economic structure and energy intensity is significant, and the influencing effect of population scale, urban employment rate and carbon emission intensity is relatively weak; (3) single increase the urbanization rate caused by carbon increase in emissions is inevitable, but considering the factors affecting the rate of urbanization, the urban population employment rate and the structure of the urban and rural areas, while the urbanization rate increased to reduce the cost of existing space and environmental win-win.
【作者单位】：华中科技大学经济学院;
【基金】：华中科技大学自主创新基金项目“碳排放人口效应、产业结构效应和能源强度效应、能源结构效应探究”(2016AA004)
【分类号】：X2;F299.21
【正文快照】： 一、引言与文献综述中国经济多年来以超过10%的速度增长,虽然近年来经济发展进入新常态,但GDP仍然保持中高速增长。值得注意的是,中国全要素增长率从长期来看并未很好地匹配经济的飞速增长,技术进步和效率提升的贡献率显著低于要素投入,经济增长的同时,物质消耗特别是能源消耗

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