关于蛋料比价关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 15:20

本文关键词：关于蛋料比价关系研究　出处：《价格理论与实践》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：我国是鸡蛋生产与消费大国,鸡蛋与饲料比价变化对蛋鸡养殖户经营活动有很大影响。因此,研究分析蛋料比价具有重要的现实意义。本文基于VAR模型建立协整方程,并运用Johansen协整检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解方法找出蛋鸡养殖成本主要影响因素,并估算蛋鸡养殖盈亏平衡点。综合得出蛋料比价受自身前期价格影响最大;方差分解蛋料比价、豆粕、玉米和蛋鸡配比饲料所贡献依次减小,分别为73%、19%、7%、1%,蛋料比价至少需要4个月恢复平稳;结合2017年玉米、豆粕价格持续走低并参照构建盈亏平衡曲线预测2017年三、四季度鸡蛋价格将上涨,且蛋鸡养殖户实现盈利。
[Abstract]:China is a big country in egg production and consumption. The change of egg and feed ratio has a great influence on the operation of laying hens. It is of great practical significance to study and analyze the egg feed price. In this paper, the co-integration equation is established based on VAR model, and the Johansen cointegration test and impulse response function are used. The variance decomposition method was used to find out the main factors affecting the breeding cost of laying hens and to estimate the profit and loss breakeven point of laying hens. Variance decomposition of egg feed ratio, soybean meal, corn and laying hens feed ratio contribution decreased in turn, respectively, 73 and 19%, egg feed price at least 4 months to restore stability; Combined with corn in 2017, soybean meal price continued to decline and the egg price would rise in the third and fourth quarter of 2017 according to the construction of break-even curve, and egg farmers would realize profit.
【作者单位】：青岛农业大学管理学院;
【分类号】：F224;F323.7
【正文快照】： 我国是世界上禽蛋生产与消费的主要国家。2016年,我国禽蛋产量高达3000万吨,同比上升3.2%,人均每年消费鸡蛋数近300枚。然而,鸡蛋价格以及养殖成本的波动直接影响蛋鸡养殖户收益。2017年以来,鸡蛋价格先一路走低,后触底反弹。其中,4月份鸡蛋价格跌入谷底,是为每公斤7.36元,同

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