基于顾客选择行为的快递市场分担研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 19:04

本文关键词：基于顾客选择行为的快递市场分担研究　出处：《西南交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国社会经济的高速发展与网络零售额的迅猛增长,推动我国的快递市场需求持续扩大,快递业务量与业务收入节节攀升。顾客需求的扩大导致了快递市场服务结构的不断调整,企业数量不断增加,市场竞争日趋激烈。如何在激烈的竞争中不断提升服务质量及降低消费者申诉,以获取更大的市场份额,是快递企业要关注的重要问题。而企业提升竞争优势的核心在于消费者,对消费者行为进行研究,可以探究消费者的需求、习惯及消费趋向,对企业进行市场细分、改善服务、确定市场策略具有重要的理论价值与应用价值。本研究在对快递市场进行充分剖析的基础上,确定进行市场分担研究的主要快递企业并运用聚类分析对其进行分类。分析快递企业选择的影响因素,并基于效用最大化理论,构建快递企业市场分担的多项Logit模型与Nested Logit(NL)模型。结合快递消费者选择意向调查全样本、分类样本数据,利用TransCAD对模型参数进行标定,根据模型结果分析各类因素对快递企业选择的影响,并对比不同的消费群体关注因素的差异性。应用模型预测各类快递企业的市场分担率,将预测结果与实际快递市场分担情况进行对比,分析多项Logit模型、NL模型的预测误差率及整体拟合优度,确定最优的快递市场分担模型。利用NL模型进行企业服务属性的敏感性分析,探究不同的服务属性的变动对该企业市场分担率的影响程度,提出针对性的企业发展对策。最后利用NL模型预测典型消费者在现行市场情况下对各类快递企业的选择概率,分析不同消费者的需求偏好。本研究通过对快递市场分担的理论分析、模型构建及其应用研究,取得了一定的成果。未来可将快递企业市场分担模型选择肢扩展到单个快递企业,调查消费者对于每一个快递企业的选择意向,并分析各快递企业的市场分担及因素影响情况。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy and the rapid growth of network retail sales, the demand of express delivery market in China continues to expand. Express business volume and business revenue continue to climb. The expansion of customer demand leads to the continuous adjustment of the service structure of express delivery market, and the number of enterprises continues to increase. Market competition is becoming increasingly fierce. How to continuously improve the quality of service and reduce consumer complaints in the fierce competition in order to obtain a greater market share. Express delivery enterprises should pay attention to an important issue. And the core of enterprises to enhance competitive advantage lies in consumers, consumer behavior research, can explore consumer needs, habits and consumption trends. It has important theoretical value and application value to segment the market, improve the service and determine the market strategy. This study is based on the analysis of the express market. Identify the main express companies to study the market share and use cluster analysis to classify them. Analyze the factors affecting the choice of express companies and based on the utility maximization theory. This paper constructs a multi-item Logit model and a Nested logitor-NL model to share the market of express delivery enterprises, and classifies the sample data according to the full sample of express delivery consumer selection intention survey. The model parameters are calibrated by TransCAD, and the influence of various factors on the choice of express delivery enterprises is analyzed according to the results of the model. And compare the difference of different consumer groups concerned factors. Apply the model to predict the market share rate of all kinds of express enterprises, and compare the forecast results with the actual express market share situation. This paper analyzes the prediction error rate and overall goodness of fit of multiple Logit models and determines the optimal distribution model of express market. Then we use NL model to analyze the sensitivity of enterprise service attributes. This paper explores the influence of different service attributes on the market share rate of the enterprise. Finally, the NL model is used to predict the selection probability of typical consumers in the current market. This paper analyzes the demand preference of different consumers. This study is based on the theoretical analysis, model construction and application research of express market sharing. Some achievements have been made. In the future, the market share model of express delivery enterprises can be extended to a single express company, and the consumer's choice intention for each express enterprise can be investigated. And analyze the market share of express delivery enterprises and the impact of factors.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F713.55;F259.2

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