A市地铁运营物资需求预测及管理优化研究

发布时间：2018-02-16 14:53

本文关键词： 地铁物资分类需求预测物资管理　出处：《西南交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：A市地铁运营规模不断扩张,且已成为分担城市居民出行的重要交通方式。其运营物资作为支撑与确保城市地铁正常、安全运行的重要组成部分,如何对几万项物资进行分类梳理,合理预测物资需求,提高库存管理水平,降低库存成本是一个值得思考与研究的问题。本文以A市地铁为研究对象,首先对其运营物资管理现状进行分析,表明A市地铁面临库存控制方法不合理,物资库存结构不合理,成本偏高,周转率小,故需要寻找一个合适的方法来解决以上问题。本文首先基于ABC-FSN分类法,对A市地铁的11608项运营物资进行分类。通过对各类预测模型的不断试用及探索,选用回归模型对AF类物资中的生产配件进行了需求预测,选用SARIMA模型对AF类物资中的生产材料及CF、CS类物资代表进行了需求预测,选用ARIMA模型对BF类物资代表进行了需求预测,相关数据指标表明以上三种预测模型能够较好的作为地铁运营物资的需求预测方法。最后对各类物资采购流程和仓储管理方式进行了优化,结果显示优化后可以达到减低整体成本,提高采购效率的目的。
[Abstract]:A subway operation scale expansion, and has become the important traffic sharing of city residents travel. Its operations and materials as the support and ensure the normal city subway, an important part of safe operation, how to classify the sort of tens of thousands of items, a reasonable forecast of materials demand, improve inventory management, reduce inventory costs is a worth thinking and research. This paper takes A city subway as the research object, the first of its operational materials management situation analysis, show that the A city subway is facing the inventory control method is not reasonable, unreasonable inventory structure, high cost, the turnover rate is small, so it needs to find a suitable way to solve the above problems in this paper. Based on the classification of ABC-FSN, 11608 operating supplies of A city subway classification. Through continuous trial and exploration of all kinds of forecasting models, selection of materials AF regression model In the production of spare parts demand forecasting, SARIMA model is selected for production materials and CF AF materials, CS materials on the demand forecast, used ARIMA model to forecast the demand of BF materials representative indexes data show that these three kinds of forecasting model can be well as the subway operation requirement of materials prediction method. At the end of all kinds of material procurement process and warehouse management mode is optimized, the result shows that the optimization can reduce the overall cost, improve procurement efficiency.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F251;F572.88

【相似文献】