河北省玉米指数保险费率厘定研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 03:12

本文选题：河北省　切入点：指数保险　出处：《河北农业大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在国民经济三次产业中，农业作为投入大、周期长的“弱质产业”抵御自然灾害的能力较差，农业保险作为一种分散农业风险的有效机制，可以减少自然灾害对农业生产的影响，被世界各国普遍应用。自2004年以来，我国政府颁布的中央一号文件多次对农业保险发展进行不同程度的规范和指导，体现了中央对农业保险发展的高度重视。从实际运行结果来看，当前农作物保险运营并不理想，在产品设计或后台管理方面存在着较大问题，这些问题从根本上推动了农作物指数保险的产生与发展。目前，上海、安徽、海南、江西四个省份已经进行了农作物指数保险试点工作，，北京、福建等地也在试点酝酿过程中，但河北省的农作物指数保险理论和实践仍基本处于空白状态。制定科学合理的保险费率对于一种新的保险险种的顺利推广起着至关重要的作用，本文对河北省的玉米区域产量指数保险和气象指数保险费率分别进行厘定，并对两种指数保险做出比较，以期为河北省玉米指数保险的发展提供理论及技术支持。本文采用1993—2010年河北省11个设区市玉米单产数据，构建趋势模型对存在时间趋势的设区市进行趋势拟合，并利用该趋势模型对玉米单产进行去趋势处理，然后运用单产分布模型推导法分别厘定出各设区市玉米产量指数保险的费率；采用河北省1993—2010年11个设区市的玉米单产和气象因素的面板数据，建立面板数据模型，推算各设区市气象单产数据，并运用单产分布模型推导法厘定各设区市玉米气象指数保险的费率。研究表明：各设区市玉米指数保险的费率普遍偏高，且各设区市间费率差别较大，这一结论为政府加大农业保险补贴力度和实行区域差别费率政策提供了理论根据；最后通过比较，两种指数保险各有利弊，它们相互关联，互为补充，同时推广两种指数保险，将有利于保障国家粮食安全和保护农民的根本利益。本文的主要创新点在于采用单产分布模型推导法对河北省的玉米区域产量指数保险和气象指数保险费率分别进行厘定，为河北省大力推广农业保险提供理论支撑。目前，已经有不少学者研究了农作物指数保险的原理，并且对部分地区农作物指数保险的费率进行了具体厘定，但对河北省农作物指数保险的研究寥寥无几。本研究立足河北省实际，将河北省玉米指数保险费率厘定作为研究对象，不仅丰富了河北省农作物指数保险区域性研究理论，而且对河北省发展农作物指数保险产生很强的指导作用。
[Abstract]:Among the three industries of the national economy, agriculture, as a "weak industry" with a large investment and a long period, has a poor ability to resist natural disasters, and agricultural insurance is an effective mechanism for dispersing agricultural risks. It can reduce the impact of natural disasters on agricultural production and has been widely used in various countries around the world. Since 2004, the Central Committee No. 1 document issued by our government has repeatedly standardized and guided the development of agricultural insurance to varying degrees. It shows that the central government attaches great importance to the development of agricultural insurance. Judging from the actual operation results, the current crop insurance operation is not ideal, and there are great problems in product design or backstage management. These problems have fundamentally promoted the production and development of crop index insurance. At present, four provinces, Shanghai, Anhui, Hainan, and Jiangxi, have already carried out pilot work on crop index insurance. Beijing, Fujian and other places are also in the process of preparing the pilot projects. However, the theory and practice of crop index insurance in Hebei Province are still basically blank. In this paper, the insurance rates of maize regional yield index insurance and meteorological index insurance in Hebei Province are determined, and the two kinds of index insurance are compared. In order to provide theoretical and technical support for the development of maize index insurance in Hebei Province, this paper uses the data of maize yield per unit yield of 11 cities in Hebei Province from 1993 to 2010, and constructs a trend model to fit the trend of cities with temporal trend. The trend model was used to detrend maize yield, and then the rate of maize yield index insurance was determined by using the model derivation method of yield distribution. The panel data of maize yield per unit yield and meteorological factors of 11 cities in Hebei Province from 1993 to 2010 were used to establish the panel data model and to calculate the meteorological unit yield data of each district city. The rate of maize meteorological index insurance is determined by deducing the model of unit yield distribution. The research shows that the rate of maize index insurance is generally higher in each district, and the rate of each city is quite different. This conclusion provides a theoretical basis for the government to increase the subsidy of agricultural insurance and implement the policy of regional differential rates. Finally, through comparison, the two kinds of index insurance have their own advantages and disadvantages, they are interrelated and complementary, and the two kinds of index insurance are popularized at the same time. Will be conducive to the protection of national food security and protection of the fundamental interests of farmers. The main innovation of this paper is to determine the rate of regional yield index insurance and meteorological index insurance rate of maize in Hebei Province by using the method of model derivation of unit yield distribution, which provides theoretical support for the promotion of agricultural insurance in Hebei Province. Many scholars have studied the principle of crop index insurance and determined the rate of crop index insurance in some areas, but the research on crop index insurance in Hebei Province is very few. The determination of corn index insurance rate in Hebei Province not only enriches the regional research theory of crop index insurance in Hebei Province, but also has a strong guiding effect on the development of crop index insurance in Hebei Province.
【学位授予单位】：河北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F842.66

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