基于系统动力学的企业职工基本养老金调整指数研究

发布时间：2018-03-23 19:52

本文选题：基本养老金　切入点：系统动力学　出处：《东北大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：基本养老金待遇的实际水平会受到物价等诸多经济因素的影响,但目前我国尚未建立科学化、长效化的待遇调整机制。虽然自2005年以来,我国基本养老金待遇水平已经连续9年上调10%。但这种“人为调整”的随意性较大,使养老保险基金的长期平衡和财政支出的承受能力面临严重的挑战。本研究以仿真软件AnyLogic6.4.1为研究平台,运用系统动力学仿真实验方法研究职工基本养老保险调整指数问题。在分析影响职工基本养老金待遇水平的主要因素基础上,确定研究变量、参数及其结构关系,构建了职工基本养老保险基金系统动力学预测模型。首先在现行政策不变的情况下对我国基本养老保险基金2001-2040年的运行情况进行模拟和预测,然后通过仿真实验对消费物价指数、社会平均工资指数、国内生产总值指数以及综合指数调四种不同的养老金调整方案在不同经济增长情景下的运行结果进行比较。研究发现,现行政策不变条件下经济增长环境是影响基金平衡的重要因素。除高情景以外,在中情景和低情景下,到2040年养老保险基金均出现缺口,缺口规模分别为16.47万亿元和46.2万亿元。比较实验表明,按社会平均工资指数调整是本研究设计的四种调整指数中最合意的调整方式。按社会平均工资指数对养老金进行调整在三种经济增长情景下均不会出现基金缺口,且结余规模较小,能够维持养老保险基金的长期收支平衡。到2040年基金累计余额在高情景下为87.72万亿元；在中情景下为59.43万亿元；在低情景下为52.81万亿元。养老金支出规模和人均基本养老金水平在三种情景下均能保持较高的保障水平,仅次于按综合指数调整的方式。到2040年高情景养老金支出为17.38万亿元,中情景为8万亿元,低情景为6.15万亿元。到2040年,人均基本养老金在高情景下为28.24万元,中情景为13万元,低情景为10万元。根据实验结果,提出了建立社会平均工资指数调整机制的建议,在实行统筹的区域内根据本区域的上年社会平均工资增长率进行调整。固定调整时间,同时要协调好统筹区域内养老金的发放和调配。并指出维持基金平衡,提高养老金待遇的根本措施还是大力发展国民经济,为养老保险制度的有效运行奠定坚实的经济基础。
[Abstract]:The actual level of basic pension benefits will be affected by many economic factors such as prices. However, at present, China has not yet established a scientific and long-term mechanism for adjusting the treatment. Although since 2005, The level of basic pension treatment in China has been increased by 10% for the ninth consecutive year. But this "artificial adjustment" is quite arbitrary. The long-term balance of pension insurance fund and the ability of financial expenditure are facing serious challenges. This study takes the simulation software AnyLogic6.4.1 as the research platform. The adjustment index of basic old-age insurance for workers is studied by system dynamics simulation experiment method. On the basis of analyzing the main factors affecting the level of basic pension treatment, the research variables, parameters and their structural relationships are determined. This paper constructs the system dynamics prediction model of the basic pension insurance fund for workers. Firstly, it simulates and forecasts the operation of the basic pension insurance fund in China from 2001 to 2040 under the condition that the current policy remains unchanged. Then through the simulation experiment, we compare the operation results of four different pension adjustment schemes, such as consumer price index, social average wage index, GDP index and composite index adjustment under different economic growth scenarios. The economic growth environment is an important factor affecting the fund balance under the condition of constant policy. Except for the high scenario and the low scenario, there is a gap between the pension fund and the pension fund by 2040. The size of the gap is 16.47 trillion yuan and 46.2 trillion yuan respectively. Adjustment according to the social average wage index is the most suitable adjustment method of the four adjustment indices designed in this study. The pension adjustment based on the social average wage index will not have a fund gap under the three economic growth scenarios. And the balance is small and can maintain the long-term balance of income and expenditure of the pension fund. By 2040, the cumulative balance of the fund is 87.72 trillion yuan under the high scenario, 59.43 trillion yuan in the middle scenario; In the low scenario, it is 52.81 trillion yuan. The scale of pension expenditure and the basic pension level per capita can be maintained at a higher level of security under the three scenarios, second only to the way adjusted according to the composite index. By 2040, the expenditure for a high scenario pension will be 17.38 trillion yuan. By 2040, the average per capita basic pension would be 282400 yuan in high scenarios, 130000 yuan in medium scenarios and 100000 yuan in low scenarios. The paper puts forward the suggestion of establishing the adjustment mechanism of the social average wage index, and adjusts the average social wage growth rate of the region according to the last year's average social wage growth rate in the region. At the same time, it is necessary to coordinate the distribution and allocation of pension in the region, and point out that the basic measures to maintain the balance of the fund and to improve the pension treatment are to vigorously develop the national economy and lay a solid economic foundation for the effective operation of the old-age insurance system.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.67

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