养老金支出水平变动趋势和影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-30 12:35

本文选题：养老保险制度 + 人口老龄化　；参考：《人口与发展》2017年01期

【摘要】：养老金支出水平(占GDP比重)作为衡量养老金给付与负担水平的重要指标,应在经济中保持适度水平。构建了由老年抚养比、养老金替代率、劳动参与率等参数构成的养老金支出水平模型,并对2015~2050年中国养老金支出水平进行了模拟和实证分析。还建立了多元回归模型,对养老金支出水平的主要影响因素进行了回归分析。发现养老金支出水平总体上呈现逐步上升的发展趋势。同时回归分析发现经济增长、人口老龄化、城市化和制度参数是影响养老金支出水平高低的主要因素。这说明通过合理的政策调整可以保持养老金支出水平的适度性并实现养老金财务收支平衡及可持续发展。对发现的理论与政策含义进行了讨论。
[Abstract]:The level of the pension expenditure (the proportion of GDP), as an important indicator of the pension payment and the burden level, should be maintained in a moderate level in the economy. The pension expenditure level model, consisting of the elderly dependency ratio, the pension replacement rate, the labor participation rate and other parameters, was constructed, and the pension expenditure level of China in 2015~2050 was simulated and the level of pension expenditure was simulated. We also set up a multiple regression model and regression analysis on the main factors affecting the pension expenditure level. It is found that the level of pension expenditure is on the rise as a whole. At the same time, the regression analysis shows that the economic growth, the aging of the population, the urbanization and the parameters of the system are the factors that affect the level of the pension expenditure. Main factors. This shows that the appropriate policy adjustment can maintain the appropriateness of the pension expenditure level and realize the financial balance and sustainable development of the pension. The implications of the theoretical and policy implications are discussed.

【作者单位】：辽宁大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目:城乡社会保障体系协调发展研究(项目号:11&ZD014)
【分类号】：F842.67

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