商业化运作下出口信用保险与出口贸易关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 10:08

本文选题：出口信用保险 + 出口贸易　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着2008年以来,各个发达国家开始进行几轮的量化宽松的货币政策,我国的出口贸易的国际环境竞争压力越来越大。出口信用保险符合WTO约束,在世界各国的国际贸易发展中也逐渐发展完善,保险覆盖率高达50%,为出口企业的出口业务保驾护航。因此,我国开始逐渐打破政策性保险的约束,发展商业性短期出口信用保险业务以促进国家的出口贸易经济。在目前的国际环境中,本文研究我国的出口信用保险是否能够对出口贸易具有促进作用则具有重大的理论意义,同时也为我国的商业性出口信用保险的未来发展提供必要的理论支持。本文主要从理论方面和实证方面研究出口信用保险对出口贸易的促进作用。在理论方面,首先研究总结了出口信用保险在国内外研究现状；其次介绍了出口信用保险的发展历程,重点分析了我国出口信用保险的发展现状,归纳了我国出口信用保险行业发展中的特点以及在发展中所出现的未解决的问题：最后对出口信用保险进行经济学理论分析和商业化运作的政策分析,在出口信用保险的经营模式选择上进行重点分析的同时,也多方面的分析了出口信用保险在行业、国别和业务发展的影响机制,得出了我国出口信用保险在商业化运作背景下能够对出口贸易具有促进作用的定性结果。在实证方面,选取了1989-2014年的出口信用保险保额和出口贸易额作为研究变量,首先考虑到序列异方差问题和数据稳定性问题对测算结果的影响,对数据进行了平稳性处理；其次利用E-G协整检验方法计算出了出口信用保险保额和出口贸易额之间的长期协整关系,使用ECM中的E-G两步法得到了出口信用保险保额和出口贸易额之间的短期弹性系数；最后采用Granger因果关系检验法对出口信用保险保额和出口贸易额之间的因果关系进行检验,得出了出口贸易是出口信用保险的格兰杰因。本文的创新点主要体现在两个方面,一方面研究了我国出口信用保险在商业化政策下的行业、国别和业务发展的运作机制,得出了商业化运作背景下出口信用保险在各方面的传导机制下能够促进出口贸易的发展；另一方面是在实证研究中对1989-2014年出口信用保险保额和出口贸易额进行了两次整体分析,因包含了2013-2014年商业化运作时期的数据,即在实证中对比研究了1989-2014年和1989-2012年出口信用保险保额和出口贸易额的关系,得出了商业化运作后出口信用保险能够促进出口贸易的结论。
[Abstract]:Since 2008, various developed countries began to carry out several rounds of quantitative easing monetary policy, the international environment competition pressure of our country's export trade is increasing. Export credit insurance conforms to the restriction of WTO and develops gradually in the development of international trade all over the world. The coverage rate of export credit insurance is as high as 50%, which protects the export business of export enterprises. Therefore, our country begins to break the restriction of policy insurance gradually, develop the business of commercial short-term export credit insurance to promote the export trade economy of our country. In the current international environment, it is of great theoretical significance to study whether China's export credit insurance can promote export trade. At the same time, it also provides the necessary theoretical support for the future development of commercial export credit insurance in China. This paper mainly studies the effect of export credit insurance on export trade from theoretical and empirical aspects. In theory, firstly, the research status of export credit insurance at home and abroad is summarized, secondly, the development course of export credit insurance is introduced, and the development status of export credit insurance in China is analyzed. The characteristics of the development of export credit insurance industry in China and the unsolved problems in the development are summarized. Finally, the economic theory analysis and commercial operation policy analysis of export credit insurance are carried out. While focusing on the selection of the business model of export credit insurance, it also analyzes the influence mechanism of export credit insurance in the industry, country and business development. The qualitative result that export credit insurance can promote export trade under the background of commercial operation is obtained. In the empirical aspect, the export credit insurance coverage and export trade volume from 1989 to 2014 are selected as the research variables. Firstly, considering the influence of the sequence heteroscedasticity problem and the data stability problem on the calculation results, the data are processed smoothly. Secondly, the long-term cointegration relationship between export credit insurance coverage and export trade volume is calculated by using E-G cointegration test method, and the short-term elasticity coefficient between export credit insurance coverage and export trade volume is obtained by using E-G two-step method in ECM. Finally, the Granger causality test method is used to test the causality between the amount of export credit insurance coverage and export trade volume, and it is concluded that export trade is the Granger factor of export credit insurance. The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in two aspects. On the one hand, it studies the operation mechanism of the trade, country and business development of export credit insurance under the commercial policy. Under the background of commercial operation, export credit insurance can promote the development of export trade under the transmission mechanism of various aspects. On the other hand, it makes two overall analyses on the amount of export credit insurance coverage and export trade volume from 1989 to 2014 in the empirical study. Because of the data of commercial operation in 2013-2014, this paper makes a comparative study on the relationship between export credit insurance coverage and export trade volume in 1989-2014 and 1989-2012, and draws the conclusion that export credit insurance can promote export trade after commercial operation.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62;F842.685

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