“全面二孩”政策对城镇职工基本养老保险统筹基金支付能力的影响

发布时间：2019-02-14 23:35

【摘要】："全面二孩"政策的实施必将通过人口结构的变化对养老保险基金产生影响,借助精算模型研究该政策实施对城镇职工基本养老保险统筹基金收支情况的影响,进而探寻人口政策改变对解决养老金支付危机的效果。研究发现,"全面二孩"政策不能推迟统筹基金当期结余出现赤字的时点,但有效地缓解了未来基金支付压力,解决了基础养老金支付危机,但"全面二孩"政策解决养老金支付危机的效果需要有一定的配套环境来支撑,通过进一步的参数敏感性分析发现,参保率和养老金增长率对养老金支付能力的影响更为敏感,而缴费率则相对迟缓,说明人口政策的调整为降低企业社保缴费负担提供了现实支撑。
[Abstract]:The implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy will certainly have an impact on the pension insurance fund through the change of the population structure. The impact of the implementation of the policy on the income and expenditure of the basic old-age insurance fund for urban workers is studied by means of an actuarial model. Then explore the effect of population policy change on solving pension payment crisis. The study found that the "comprehensive two-child" policy could not delay the deficit point of the current balance of the overall fund, but it effectively alleviated the future fund payment pressure and solved the basic pension payment crisis. However, the effect of the "comprehensive two-child" policy to solve the pension payment crisis needs to be supported by a certain supporting environment. Through further parametric sensitivity analysis, it is found that the effect of the rate of participation and the growth rate of pension on the ability of pension payment is more sensitive. The contribution rate is relatively slow, indicating that the adjustment of population policy provides practical support for reducing the burden of social security payment.
【作者单位】：武汉大学社会保障研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金“十二五”规划2012年度教育学青年课题“西藏高校毕业生就业状况统计及监测研究”(课题号:CIA120145)
【分类号】：F842.67

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