农作物产量保险区域化差别费率厘定的可行性——基于非参数核密度估计实证

发布时间：2019-05-21 22:14

【摘要】：采用非参数核函数平滑法以辽宁省、黑龙江省以及大连市的水稻、玉米和大豆三种农作物历年单位面积产量为例拟合了单产损失分布,同时利用传统的正态概率密度对区域作物单产分布进行了拟合。在拟合损失分布的基础上,分别厘定出不同保险水平农作物区域产量保险的纯保险费率。经测算发现,传统的正态概率密度下厘定的纯保险费率均低于非参数核密度下测算的纯费率,正态法低估了农作物单产的风险。保险水平在70%~80%间的参数法及非参数法测算的纯保险费率均低于政策性农业保险的现行费率。另外,在数据可得的基础上,还应该确定适当的厘定保费费率的区域以充分识别风险,更精确的计算保费。
[Abstract]:Taking the yields per unit area of rice, corn and soybean in Liaoning Province, Heilongjiang Province and Dalian as examples, the distribution of yield loss per unit area was fitted by nonparametric kernel function smoothing method. At the same time, the distribution of crop yield per unit was fitted by using the traditional normal probability density. On the basis of fitting the loss distribution, the pure insurance rates of crop regional yield insurance with different insurance levels were determined respectively. It is found that the pure insurance rate determined under the traditional normal probability density is lower than the pure rate calculated under the nonparametric nuclear density, and the normal method underestimates the risk of crop yield per unit. The pure insurance rates calculated by the parametric method and the non-parametric method between 70% and 80% of the insurance level are lower than the current rates of policy-oriented agricultural insurance. In addition, on the basis of the availability of data, we should also determine the appropriate area to determine the premium rate in order to fully identify the risk and calculate the premium more accurately.
【作者单位】：辽宁对外经贸学院财政金融系;
【基金】：国家教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目《农业保险差别化费率与补贴理论方法与实证研究》(11YJC630267) 辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学一般项目《政策性农业保险费率厘定模型与实证研究》(W2011151) 辽宁对外经贸学院博士启动基金项目《农村金融组织创新对农民收入的影响研究》(2013XJLXBSJJ007) 中美农业部国际合作项目《The U.S.Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency Cooperative Agreement to the Center for Agribusiness Excellence,Tarleton State University,Texas A&M University System Biography》(No.53-3151-2-00017)
【分类号】：F224;F842.6

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